> Even in hotspots like New York City that have been hit hardest by the pandemic, initial studies suggest that perhaps 15-21%6,7 of people have been exposed so far.
(goes on to mention how many people are dying)
> Some have entertained the idea of “controlled voluntary infection,”9 akin to the “chickenpox parties” of the 1980s. However, COVID-19 is 100 times more lethal than the chickenpox.
(goes on to completely dismiss whether that would actually lead to some level of herd immunity)
I get that the disease is more deadly. But is this one of those cases where it's better to pull hard and rip the band-aid off in one go? Nobody seems to really want to broach this topic seriously.
> To reach herd immunity for COVID-19, likely 70% or more of the population would need to be immune. Without a vaccine, over 200 million Americans would have to get infected before we reach this threshold. Put another way, even if the current pace of the COVID-19 pandemic continues in the United States – with over 25,000 confirmed cases a day – it will be well into 2021 before we reach herd immunity. If current daily death rates continue, over half a million Americans would be dead from COVID-19 by that time.
It's unclear to me whether the author is stating that herd immunity would take too long under the condition that we completely opened up the global economy or if we all continued to stay isolated.
We're definitely not going to reach 70% with the way things are.