A new Moon race has begun
economist.com
economist.com
We still pay hefty amounts of money to oil rig workers and underwater welders, even here on Earth. Robot telepresence has a long way to go before we can build an entire refinery in zero-G.
Or a laundry system that grabs the basket of dirty laundry (or better yet, picks the close off the floor), washes, then transfers to the dryer, then irons and hangs up the clothes.
If machines can do all that effectively, then they can probably explore other planetary bodies as good as people.
While I disagree with your benchmark, I don't think we're going to be putting robotic factories in space in 3-4 years. Have we even built a 100% robotic factory on earth yet? Plus, I don't think that anyone has built an autonomous robot for zero-g yet (I'm not counting satellites and Canada-arm).
https://www.theverge.com/2017/7/17/15981250/japan-space-came...
"Japan’s space agency has for the first time released photos and videos taken on the International Space Station by its resident robot drone..."
Now a factory on Mars that takes in sunlight and atmosphere, and fills a tank with rocket fuel, could be possible. But in that case I would call it a specialized machine, not a factory or a robot.
Humans operating a remote robot on the Moon is a feasible concept, but there's a lot of remaining work on telepresence to be done. Haptic feedback, VR, robotic finger dexterity.
Full autonomy isn't necessary with the Moon's time lag. It'll be required if you want to do the robotic factory approach on Mars or the asteroid belt or something.
For example, the rovers on Mars, as much as they have accomplished, really haven't done much more in all the time they were there than humans did physically on the Moon 50 years ago.
> If space exploration continues to focus on sending robots to other planets, "we will learn less about the solar system in the next 100 years than we will if we engage in an ambitious program of human exploration,"
In other words, sending humans could be more efficient use of funds. This is an old topic which was rehashed many times; some conclude that robot's advantage here is not real.
we need the experience from sending 5, 10, etc people there before we can send hundred or more.
we need much more data on the effects of longterm space travel. this kind of experience can not be bootstrapped.
bootstrapping colonization would be worthwhile if we were ready to build a viable colony in the next few decades. but i do not believe we are.
i believe we do not yet have enough data to know if long term space missions are even possible.
getting machines to mars is easy. but getting the experience necessary for human colonization alone will take several decades more before we are ready. we don't need that bootstrapping as much as we need the experience of human spaceflight in order to build a colony.
https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/05/nasa-planning-to-lau...
This just sounds like a lot of waste of money, when they won’t even bother to help people pay their rents.
We can and should do multiple things at once.