Yes. My comment https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23067613 was partly based on a paper on the storm of 2012. Their estimate of probablility of a carrington-type thingy was 12% per decade (from memory but I believe it is correct).

Edit: this probability appears to have been amended recently. From https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/03/190312103717.h...

"

According to this new research, the probability of a similar solar storm occurring in the following decade ranges from 0.46% to 1.88%, far less than the percentage estimated before. "In 2012, the results reported in scientific literature estimated the probability to be around 12%, ten times more than our more pessimistic estimation,"

"

So much better, but one of the paper's authors says "A probability close to 2% which is what we have calculated for a highly intense storm should not be looked over if we take into account the consequences of such an event"