Bay Area median home price first annual drop since 2011

The bay area housing market took a big hit in 2008, even within SF.

There is no reason why it couldn't happen again. Of course, even with the hit, SF was still one of the most expensive places in the US (everywhere else dropped as much or more).

The Case-Shiller index dropped 45% in SF between the peak (Apr 2006) to the bottom (Apr 2009).[1]

[1]https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SFXRSA

It was very regional. Housing prices fell in the broad area, but stayed mostly stable in San Francisco and kept rising in Palo Alto and Mountain View.

I'm not sure how useful it is to talk about the Bay Area as one market. During 2006-2010 things were very different from one zip code to another. I was just looking at some historical Zillow data from those years and some zip codes like Cupertino barely moved at all, for all those months. Others, like parts of San Jose dropped by as much as 50% and just recovered to their 2006 numbers recently. So maybe for some general sense of the numbers you can average the Bay Area market but when it comes to pricing an actual house and trying to see how recession-proof/prone it is, thinking of the entire SF Bay doesn't seem to make sense.

> This fact seems to contradict that talking point.

It would seem to if it reflected prices on similar homes dropping by that much. If, OTOH, it reflected a change in who was selling homes to a lower segment of the economic ladder (especially if those people were selling up the economic ladder) it doesn't show that the housing market was weak, at all.

Perhaps even more relevant. If there was already a down turn.

I noticed a number (4-5) for pre-foreclosures in Berkeley right before the shutdowns started.

Now there is a freeze on foreclosures in Ca, right? What’s going to happen when it is lifted? I don’t think it is going to be pretty.

First thing to keep in mind is that the Case Shiller data you linked to only has data up to February. The FSI data is more up to date, but the big upswing was only getting started in late Feb with it being more visible in March/April figures.

The other thing to consider is that housing prices are likely to lag behind financial stress. If people are in financial stress, they are likely to sell off a second car or other luxury possessions before selling their house. Also selling a house takes time, so even when people do start selling they won't be on the market or closing sales straight away.

People still have to make mortgage payments though? Given, the flush of cars sitting in the dockyard and such high unemployment rate, wont this affect housing prices a tid bit?