If you're making up percentages of people who update when they see an icon and a message telling them updates are available, asking other people to make up their own numbers, then deciding that we should make decisions based on these made-up numbers, I think you're on the wrong track.

How often Ubuntu users who turn auto-update off manually update themselves is an actual thing that can be researched. It's disappointing how many developers just think you should assume the worst based on your imagination and ego, then justify taking away control from users whenever one can get away with it as a safety measure.