The Future of the Tablet, and It Isn’t the iPad 2
fastcompany.com
fastcompany.com
- Nobody will beat Apple on price until manufacturing ramps up so they get parts at competitive rates, or they pull a game console and sell hardware for a loss.
- Because people buy on price, they'll buy Apple, and thus will obtain apps on that platform, and get used to the interface.
- Because of past investment and comfort, people will keep buying iPads.
To win as a non-Apple tablet company:
- Develop a great product , with a great interface and bleeding edge tech, at price parity or better prices than Apple, then announce it and ship within a few weeks (so you don't end up in HP or RIM's situation - product announced, Apple leapfrogs you even before you ship).
- Give a few thousand hardware units to developers who are known to turn out great stuff, see what happens.
- Pray that you don't have any major problems and that people are willing to take a chance on you.
- Support that product with firmware updates, make promises as such, so people don't feel like next year they'll be abandoned.
- Phones are considered a "necessary" item whereas tablets are a more optional purchase, especially if you already have a laptop or similar.
- People also are used to upgrading their phones at end of contract, and getting whatever the "new thing" is. Often, on non AT&T, this meant whatever Android phone you could get.
- Phones are subsidized by the phone companies (at least in the US), thus hiding the true hardware cost.
- Tablets parts are in shorter supply, and more costly except for in volume, and nobody but Apple is shipping tablets in volume.
Because of the above, current Android tablets are screwed. Future Android tablets might do better once the manufacturing volume for tablet sized parts is established and prices get driven down.
I'm running the latest Firefox 3 (with NoScript). And before you blame NoScript, here it is with JS and friends enabled: http://i.imgur.com/JzPGP.png
Edit: Never mind, it was NoScript blocking a couple of the countless embedded scripts. I think the culprit was addthis.com/sharethis.com.
I can't make sense of this statement. Apple certainly had third-party developers on Mac OS (Classic) since the beginning. Makes the rest of the article somewhat suspect.
If not, then it is up to a competitor with enough foresight and financial wherewithal to leapfrog the iPad 2 and re-conceptualize the tablet as a productivity tool instead of as an entertainment tool.
The iPad has the most serious and capable productivity tools ever seen on a non-stylus tablet to date: Pages, Keynote and Numbers. What are they talking about?
Apple created the iPhone. Now every (smart) phone looks like an iPhone. Android has equaled or exceeded iPhone shipments through a combination of factors (lower price points, more carriers in the US and so forth).
Apple reinvented the tablet as a capacitive touch device very much like the iPhone. Everyone copies that design. People predict the same outcome in the tablet market as happened in the phone market.
I disagree, for several reasons:
Firstly, the base functionality for a phone is much higher than that of a tablet. A phone can make and receive calls, make and receive SMSs and (in the category we're talking about) browse the Web. At that point you've covered over 90% of the usage of most people.
Tablets are (IMHO) a different beast. I haven't seen stats on this (I'd love to, if they exist) but I would guess, as an iPad (and iPhone) owner, two things:
1. A greater percentage of iPad owners buy apps than iPhone owners;
2. iPad owners buy a larger number of apps than iPhone owners;
3. iPad apps on average cost more (although this gap is narrowing and will probably disappear); and
4. iPad users spend more time in nonstandard (standard being mail, maps, photos and Web browser) than smart phone users.
If true--and I stress again that the above is my guess--the conclusion you reach is that the apps, and the infrastructure that goes around that (including payment and developer ecosystems) are far more important in the tablet market than the phone market.
Secondly, in the US at least, people generally choose carrier first and handset second. In all places, people first make a decision around having mobile phone service (and usage) and then buy a handset/plan.
Tablets on the other hand are primarily used at home or in the office. While 3G models sell very well and people have 3G data services, I would guess that the overwhelming majority of iPad usage is on Wifi, unlike phones.
Third, Apple is leading the market on price. What kind of topsy-turvy world do we live in where Apple leads the market on price?
Apple has beautifully designed products with the best ecosystem that lead the market on price. How exactly is this not Apple's game to lose?
Drawing parallels between what happened in phones and what's happening in tablets is (IMHO) foolish.
As for the OP's claims, there are four basic methods that we have for writing stuff today:
1. Audio and/or video recording;
2. Using a physical keyboard and/or mouse;
3. Using a touch surface; and
4. Using pen and paper.
For students who want to take notes and so forth my opinion is that old-fashioned pen and paper and the almost archaic keyboard will rule the roost for some time to come. They just have inherent advantages in input speed and flexibility. Even a stylus on a tablet just can't compete (IMHO).
It won't be a real "productivity tool" until it has a dock with a real keyboard and a 32" display and can move seamlessly between desktop and travelling modes.
I really want to get rid of everything else. Anybody listening?