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Comment by mason55 | Hacker News Reader

> Who cares about the quarter after that, where production will have to be impacted by reduced workforce.

You were being sarcastic but you're kind of right. In the same way that this quarter isn't the be all-end all, neither is next quarter. Over, say, a 10 year time horizon, the next couple quarters will just be a blip.

Plus, Boeing doesn't exist in a vacuum. The US Govt is going to let anything happen to them due to national security reasons and they've shown that they aren't willing to wipe out shareholders as part of a bailout.

Frankly I'd be much more worried about the culture that allowed the 787MAX to happen than I would be about short-term COVID-19 reductions.

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The government definitely could let them wipeout shareholders, and then step in during the bankruptcy process.

In short, the bond holders would become the new shareholders, and the government would be able to drive it to the conclusion that the government wants. This is oversimplified, as reality has much more nuance than this.

That might actually be the best option going forward, as they could clean up a bunch of legacy crap and streamline the firm.

Plus, the government might want multiple companies ( e.g. commercial/defense/space ) instead of one monolith.

> The government definitely could let them wipeout shareholders, and then step in during the bankruptcy process.

That definitely won't happen this year, perhaps ever.

Trump said today that states are responsible for procurement and development of virus tests, labs and processing material. Each state, on their own. If he's afraid of that responsibility, Boeing is going to be something he's never heard of.

Trump is the head of the government, but he is not the government. The US government is such a behemoth not even he can stop it doing what it does. Too many vested interests in Boeing to let it fail.

The US Govt isn't going to let anything happen to Boeing, but protecting their shareholders isn't a national security issue. They will still probably protect them since it is a government imposed travel shutdown.

Why would a government shutdown impact Boeing? I mean people fly less, but that's a few months, how many planes will not be replaced because they're getting 2 months less use?

Unless you're counting the crashes that won't happen because of the shutdown, of course.

Airlines pay on installment plans and would start missing payments if they weren't bailed out, which also bails Boeing shareholders out.

I read somewhere that airlines don't actually own the planes.

Seems to be true, and Boeing may lease through other partner companies and not directly.

I disagree that this quarter will be a blip, but I agree with the sentiment here.

There are runways and parking lots in Washington full of undelivered planes which are waiting on contractual disputes related to the quality assurance of the 737 MAX issues. A significant percentage of Boeing planes are currently undeliverable and post-pandemic world airlines are likely going to cancel / downsize contracts or at least spend significant legal fees to attempt to do so.

Barring a quick and easy vaccination or herd immunity that accidentally happens much faster than expected, travel is unlikely to recover this year and perhaps not next. Clearing their backlog of planes will likely take 4+ years unless the company can convince people and airlines to trust them again.

Delivery has taken so long that they are going to run into refund periods soon. There's normally massive down payments for these which deters cancellations but these aren't ordinary times. You are almost certainly going to see consolidation within the airlines and there's little to no chance of more plane purchases in that case.

If this lasts long enough for good tools for telepresence to be in place, travel may never recover.

Or if countries close borders and don't reopen as much.

Or...

There are a lot more risks here than just draw-out pandemic.

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