What's a Post-PC device?
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The filesystem has gone away.
Everything about the previous generation of computers revolved around files. To a user, everything on a PC is a file. Nothing on my iPad looks like a file. There are icons for applications. Are they files? Or is this HTML presented in a browser? Does a user know or care?
This simple difference changes everything. No files means that DVDs, floppy discs, thumb drives, and all other forms of storage are suddenly repositioned. iTunes sucks in so many ways, but one way it doesn't suck is that I don't care where my songs are, just that there's a database of songs with an interface that is song-specific. Music playing applications are post-PC ways to manipulate music.
Obviously iTunes exists on a Mac/PC as well as on an iOS device. On a Mac or a PC, it provides an interface for dealing with music files, but I can still hunt for the files if I want to. If I move a file, I break the carefully crafted illusion of there just being music.
On a Mac, I install software by downloading it and dragging it into my Applications folder. I'm manipulating files. Sure, there are fronts put up so I can avoid the files, like installer packages and the new Mac App Store. But the application files are still there to be manipulated and I can still fool around with the Library and stumble over the filesystem's spoor when I go trekking through the Finder.
On an iOS device, there are no files, there is no Finder. Software is installed by some magic process that never exposes me to the implementation. The illusion is complete. This is what makes an iOS device a post-PC device. I imagine that there are or will be tablets and phones where I can break into the device and discover that hidden from the user is a world of files. Such devices won't be post-PC devices, they'll be PCs in a tablet form factor.
To summarize, my contention is that "Post-PC Device" doesn't mean tablet or phone, it means "No filesystem."
It's been tried times and times again. I've seen it on Symbian on SE P910 (virtual directories per file sense, like video, audio etc), Windows 95 & later(`My Computer'), KDE, N900. You have seen it on other software, and probably will see a few more times.
The `no filesystem' is a leaky abstraction [2]; sooner or later programs start exposing files and directories, because that's what people understand and want to use. `No filesystem' is flimsy magic, files feel like physical objects you actually own. `No filesystem' is the limited menu of your DVD, files and directories are your house with rooms with drawers with shelves with boxes with items.
Your way.
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Files and directories are what you--and people like you--like and want to use. The rest of us don't give a damn about them, especially the way you build them for us.
Now I will return to your snarky quip. Your contention is that if something failed in the 1990s, it will necessarily fail in 201x? This makes no sense to me whatsoever. Almost everything that succeeds today failed in some form in the past, it's just that times have changed and things previously impossible or impractical are suddenly reasonable.
The whole point of $500 thingummies is that they exist in a very different world than $2,500 whatchamacallits.
Nope; the reasoning for the inadequacy is based on the fact you can't please users by including just 80% of features. Sure they use 80% at most, but everybody has different 80% [1].
A collection of objects (here: files) can only (reasonably) be a: 1) set, 2) directed acyclic graph - a.k.a. tree, 3) relational database (in the general sense)
1) is pretty much pointless,
2) is what my mom and little sister understand and use as it requires little querying,
3) requires a powerful query language (that's what right & comfy for us nerds, right?).
So far the filesystem-less software has been two-prong: mounting filesystems at certain pre-designated mountpoints (Windows & friends), nevermind that; and presenting a querable database with a bunch of predefined queries -- AND NO WAY OF CREATING ANY MORE QUERIES. That's the 80% your users aren't looking for.
Now if you come up with a query language that's quick and easy to use from GUI, I'll buy you a week-long supply of your $FAV_BEWERAGE, cross my heart. (drop me a line at dexen.devries + the usual gmail suffix).
But it will not `look like' -- semantics-wise -- as the curret breed of Symbians and iOSes. QED.
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This argument attempts to bludgeon me with logic into believing that filesystems are somehow natural, when nearly forty years of hands on experience with computers tells me otherwise. They aren't natural for a guy like me, only a mathematician would suggest that a DAG is the right answer for storing all the world's information. Your argument falls into the Turing Tar Pit of embracing a single design where everything is possible but nothing of interest is easy.
Now about my sister. Consider iTunes: She can type the name of a song and listen to it right away, that's my own Joel Spolsky quote. She can look at her albums. She can look at her artists. She can look at the songs she's purchased. She can look at the songs she has added to iTunes in the last few weeks.
If you want to call it a database, fine. If you want to call it a hierarchal filesystem, fine. If you want to call it a set, fine. I don't care what you call it under the covers, from my sister's POV, iTunes is NOTHING like looking at song files in the Finder.
My sister also likes her third generation iPod. She has never once complained that it doesn't have music files on it. If your sister wants a filesystem, I'm sure somebody makes music players with visible filesystems where she can be comfortable, and I'm ok with that.
Now I think I am going to go my own way and wish you much happiness as you go yours. If you would like something pretentious to ponder, here is my post on what's wrong with OOP:
https://github.com/raganwald/homoiconic/blob/master/2010/12/...
I suggest to you--with absolutely no justification whatsoever--that organizing programs as towers of classes all inheriting from each other is isomorphic to organizing deeply nested hierarchies of files.
For other data sets it can be improved, and it will be: by adding support for somewhat hierarchical structure. They did it a few decades ago and it will happen again and again.
The example of music is very, very specific [2] -- all files come with diligently filled-in metadata, and all files have same metadata fields. Each song can be uniquely addressed by (artist, title, version) and mostly uniquely by some other tuples.
But that won't work very well for average Excel and Word files, at least not in the way they are created right now; they largely miss metadata or it differs from file to file.
MS Word? Creeping featurism, bullet-point engineering, yea. They painted themselves into a corner. They broke out of it with Ribbon UI. I like it :D
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raganwald, I'm terribly sorry for being irritating in the above posts; I'll try to social up :-)
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(My parents would be delighted if Word or Excel had a similar library of documents.)
Since the Word and Excel documents often have no such metadata, and the possible attributes are numberous, it's no wonder no `document library' got popular as of yet. The best you get -- the state of the art of desktop search -- is full-text-search with some semantic analysis, right?
A sort of document library could be just as good or better than the filesystem for managing documents, I don’t think that you have to end up with a leaky abstraction. (Browsing documents on Google Docs, for example, doesn’t feel wrong but you are not using a filesystem to access your documents, you are using a sort of library view.)
I think it’s kind of astonishing that no one has really tried to do just that. There are half-hearted attempts but one of the things about abstractions is that they have to be good to be successful. It’s certainly not easy but I think it’s possible.
I'm not sure I would agree with the post. It is difficult to argue with the success of the tablets, but I am not sure if diskless systems could really qualify as a ". Post-PC computing system" unless they replace the PCs.
Harddiskless computers have been around for quite a while now, but i'm not sure a standard workstation could be replaced by one anytime soon. Even though most data is stored remotely, local work copies are at the foundation of most of the tools we use.
These tools would have to be rewritten either to no longer make local copies or to hide their locality from the user. Both of the solutions are nontrivial and their benefits are non-obvious.
What is the exact gain of doing a checkout to a remote disk instead of that of my workstation? That i can ligitimately slack off at the coffee machine when the network goes down?
But maybe it is just that im not open-minded enough to allow my PC to need anything other than power for me to be productive.
In order to orchestrate this, they will need a central repository of their data, that they can search around, and is hopefully organized (ie, they remember that their picture was taken in 1997 at that trip to Chicago, or that the song was a rock song they heard on the radio in highschool).
Apple, recognizing this need, will release a new app that will allow users to create hierarchical categories for their stuff, search their stuff, move it around, and make copies of their stuff. The app will probably be named "Finder", and these pieces of data might be named, "files".
Search, and its cousin Query, are the other way of looking at things: Put everything somewhere and give me a way to get what I want. I predict that if and when Apple provides something along the lines of shared data, it will look more like Microsoft's original vision for WinFS than the Finder.
Or maybe... just maybe... it will look like Newton's soup ;-)
https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/WinFS https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Soup_(Apple_N...
I add simply ontology when specific tools require their own unpolluted namespace (ie, pine/mail) or need to be installed for multiple users (local box binaries).
iOS devices (as an example) just take this to the next level. In fact, I don't even use the main screen for launching many apps, I just type in the search screen to get it. If I could speak it in a seamless way, I'd do that instead.
But where did you get the idea that hierarchies are useless?
They will be heralded for their visionary move; "game changing", some will say.
Meanwhile, Android fans will wonder why they didn't already have the equivalent of a shared "find resource" Intent.
Bickering will ensue.
If a device has a filesystem for its own use but does not expose the filesystem to users or to applications, that's a post-PC device. If we merely denude the device of the Finder but all the apps use the filesystem, I'm on the fence. It's a post-PC device in all the ways that matter to users, but it feels transitional to me. Future generations of post-PC device won't expose a filesystem to developers or users.
So yes, iOS devices are post-PC devices, but they can become even more so.
I was pretty sure this was going to be part of the answer, but I laughed out loud when I saw it anyway. Thanks for clarifying your ideas. :)
So if you turn your head sideways and squint, there are some similarities between pre-PC and post-PC devices.
What is different (compared to personal computers) is the filesystem (the location of your data) itself is becoming abstract and disjointed from the physical device you are using. Data is moving into the cloud and our devices become stateless interfaces. It's simply an undoing of what the personal computer did which was to tie your data to the physical device.
Thin-client with a new buzzword.
Also in calling them post-PC devices Jobs is signalling his intent to continue moving in a new direction, one that separates them from the pack. Contrary to the article, Jobs did not claim that tablets are post-PC, just that his iOS devices were post-PC.
"No user accessible file system" is probably a more appropriate meaning in terms of Apple (other vendors may vary). Another way of describing the Apple model is that the user cannot access the file system without Apple's explicit permission (e.g. iTunes and MobileMe mentioned elsewhere).
Until it's time to back them up, right?
In all seriousness, if losing all your music when you lose your tablet is a fatal flaw, the solution is to expand MobileMe so that it syncs my music to the cloud, not to ask me to know what FAT32 is and why some hard drives can hold a 1080p movie but others can't even if they claim to have enough disc space and...
Oh, my head hurts just trying to describe the awful experience that is using a PC.
And that $100 would only get you 20GB, so you'd be limited to a total of around 2.5 of those 1080p movies you're apparently throwing around (assuming a conservative 8GB each). And it'd take approximately a million years to sync them on any typical home broadband connection. And you'd better not be doing that over 3G, oh boy.
No, moving to THE CLOUD just gives you a different set of problems.
It's no surprise that people don't understand its utility. Quite honestly, it seems like most companies don't implement backups particularly effectively. If "professionals" can't get it right, how does giving someone a filesystem solve the problem?
My suggestion to you is to think about how a post-PC device should solve the disaster-recovery problem in a way that appeals to postPC users. If you can invent something that a luddite like me would use, you have a YCombinator startup right there.
Think about DropBox as an example. It's a folder. And it syncs. DropBox is right on the edge of PC/Post-PC. It still works with files, but all of the moving parts are out of sight.
So go out and invent the post-PC disaster-recovery mechanism. Make it like DropBox, not like backing up music. Just don't try to drag people backwards to being sysadmins. That's not going to work.
You plug your device in, it synchs, and then you're free to fling it out the window. No monthly fees to keep up with, and if done well, it's basically a one-time $100 back-up investment. Make it work easily with OS X and Windows, and people like my parents would never have to worry about the dog eating their laptop again.
Is this something MobileMe is currently capable of, or are you saying that it's up to Apple to implement that solution?
iOS requires iTunes on a PC/Mac to back up, but this is likely a business decision to make more $$, and could easily be replaced by a clouded or local backup appliance.
In this mechanism you have to willingly ignore the backup requests... it's like the seatbelt beep in modern cars - at that point, it's 99% PEBKAC if no backup exists.
It could mean "Locked down to need app approval and 30% cut of services" too.
The idea that tablets are "post-pc" seems far too limiting, and I think it reflects the current trend in consumer electronics to race for some lowest-common-denominator-does-it-all-general-purpose device, rather than understanding that different needs can sometimes be better solved with different devices.
Microsoft and Intel are indeed faced with the innovators dilemma. Both are fully constrained by their legacy product lines, which respectively define their brands. Intel went so far as to sell off its ARM CPU business to Marvell in 2006. Intel's Atom, even if eventually energy competitive with ARM, will face commodity pricing rather than monopoly pricing. Likewise Microsoft already has ARM-compatible Windows CE and Windows Mobile. These do not run typical cash-cow Windows applications. In order to make the leap to the Post-PC era, both Microsoft and Intel must leave their cash cows behind, or worse, participate in their decline.
We are at just the beginning of the Post-PC era, and I'm very excited about the multitude of sensors and potential actuators that can be coupled with, and enhance the usefulness of, smartphone and tablet devices. The GPS, accelerometer, gyroscope, microphone, speaker, cameras, and NFC are just the starting point. Expected in a few years are barometric pressure, humidity, and temperature sensors. Most of these don't these make sense on a PC. Furthermore, smartphones and tablets will mesh with each other and with the increasingly intelligent devices encountered in our everyday environment.
The Post-PC era is additionally characterized by responsive cloud services that offset the limited hardware capabilities of ARM mobile devices. For example, Google is rolling out a real time speech translation app that simply wraps up the microphone input, translates it at a server farm, then immediately sends the translated speech waveforms to the speaker output. Your Post-PC device can hear and talk. Likewise, imagine what happens when the video camera output is processed by a powerful cloud server - we have product and facial recognition, and beyond that I expect general vision capabilities to arise.
People have a relationship with data, they refine it, they explore it, they correlate it, they hoard it, they spend it to get more data.
Computation, networks, and storage are the tools of data manipulation. Visualization via iPad, visualization via color plotter serves different versions of the same purpose.
As the cost of assembling a sufficiently rich network of computation, network and storage resources drops below the personal value of the data manipulation that the set of resources is capable of, an economic opportunity is created.
Look at network attached LCD 'picture frames' as a canonical example of this value equation playing out in the real world. In 1984 people took color slides printed on cellulose, put a 250W lamp behind them and projected them periodically on the wall. The cost of doing a 'picture frame' application with acceptable resolution was north of $250,000 (yes a quarter of a million dollars, I worked at the Image Processing Institute at USC and we had such a system in house for flipping through a variety of images in "true color" (24 bit RGB) and that is what it cost.) My Mom got a Kodak "easy share" picture frame in 2006 with better resolution and more storage for less than $250.
The constant here is a personal relationship with data (pictures) the variable here is that cost to instantiate that data such that it can be interacted with.
Post-PC implies a sequential relationship with PC. I claim that its a parallel economic relationship. An economic choice is made to view images with the picture frame rather than the slide projector or the laboratory image analysis setup (or the PC).
PC's have a low marginal cost for adding a new data manipulation capability, that gives them great value when new data is encountered. For established data they have a high unrecoverable cost (and on-going maintenance burden).
Tablets 'work' because they provide a data interaction service (surfing the web, reading, watching video, tracking your friends) at less economic cost than a laptop.
Personal implies choice, customization, and individuality, and these are precisely the things apple strives to remove from it's devices and services. The ability to choose one of seven particular colors and three price-range specific models is a laughable substitute.
The iPad is the first Computer which is post-Personal.
I personally think that a Post-PC device is simply a device that for some (and later many) people replaces a PC in their day-to-day computer-related tasks. So if whatever they used to do on a PC they now mostly do on say an iPad then an iPad would be a post-PC device.
That's why the process to create an account without providing payment info is made intentionally difficult without jumping through hoops. It is as simple as that.
Also, I wish to get out of the music sysadmin business and will cut iTunes loose at the earliest opportunity.
More cheaply? I would say you can get more powerful laptops/netbooks and desktops with more storage for less than $500.
There is so much hot air expended on essential meaningless PR terms such as this, especially when it comes to Apple.
All of this is just posturing for the media and general public and does not hold up to technical scrutiny more than the previous claim about the iPhone running the 'full OS X'.
I am more worried about the 30% tax on services that seems to tag along with the so called Post-PC devices.
Come on, don't compare crappy netbooks running windows 7 on a tiny screen to the iPad. The iPad is a completely different kind of device. While its specs might be (hypothetically speaking (for the sake of the argument)) crappier than some netbook out there, that's not the point.
You ignored the whole sentence and picked on "cheaply". You forgot "non-expert users" and "simply".
Also, coming back to the price. Think of the value the iPad is offering; not just the specs. Easy to hold, looks gorgeous, plenty of apps, fun to use, fluid experience .. etc.
> crappy netbooks running windows 7 on a tiny screen
The iPad has a 9.7in screen, with a 1024 x 768 resolution. By comparison, many netbooks have 10.1in screens with 1024 x 600 resolutions. I wouldn't call that enough of a difference to say that netbook screens are tiny while iPad screens aren't.
> its specs might be (hypothetically speaking (for the sake of the argument)) crappier than some netbook out there
Your bias is showing, as is your ignorance of the current specs of iPads and netbooks. The first generation of iPads had specs which were inferior to many netbooks at the time, especially when considering RAM; the current generation (which isn't shipping yet) has comparably fast processors, but much less storage and probably less RAM.
But yes, Apple is trying to position themselves as not a part of the herd, removing the need to compete on specs. They are definitely succeeding[2], which allows them both to focus on the interface and appearance and to make their products into appliances, where it doesn't necessarily make sense to compare them to anything else. How do you compare UI, after all? If Apple is able to avoid objective measurements, that's a huge success for them, since they'll be able to sell hardware that's slower or older without anyone noticing.
[1] In this case, it is factually incorrect, and perhaps an outright lie, to claim that iPads are cheaper than netbooks. $379.99 for a netbook is less than $499 for an iPad.
[2] As your comment makes abundantly clear, Apple does not lack fans, nor will these fans stand quietly by while objectively true statements are made that disparage Apple.
Your mentality is exactly why Google and Microsoft (and others) don't get Apple at all. You think in "data". If something can't be put in a spreadsheet, it's not real for you.
Your comparisons between netbooks and iPads are ridiculous. You're comparing the price, specs, and screen size. You just don't get it.
11" is tiny for windows 7, because it wasn't designed for netbooks. The taskbar takes a huge part of the screen, as do the title bars and menu bars and tool bars and tab bars.
The iPad screen size might be the same or smaller or whatever, but because applications are designed specifically for it, they use the screen space much more efficiently.
By the way, Apple has its own netbook. It's called Air and it has a 11" variant. It's much more expensive than typical netbooks though, and I guess you could argue that it's not really a netbook.
> Apple does not lack fans, nor will these fans stand quietly by while objectively true statements are made that disparage Apple.
Your sense of "objectivity" is ridiculous.
It's like your counting the number of character in a logical argument as a measure of its validity. "I wrote more characters than you, therefore I win the argument". This is just an analogy of course, and this is not what you're saying. But, you're using the wrong measure for determining the value of the iPad.
> If one part of a sentence is factually incorrect or an outright lie[1], it is entirely appropriate to point out that it is so, ignoring the other portions of it.
It's only a lie when you take it out of context. It's talking about non-expert users. Only geeks like us would shop around for the best laptop deals. Most people don't even know how to evaluate the specs. "What does dual core mean and why should I care? What type of memory is best?".
non-expert users cannot get a product that's cheaper than the iPad and provides the same or similar experience. There just isn't such a product.
Not to mention the iPad uses SSD instead of magnetic discs. A typical non-expert user wouldn't even know what SSD means and if he had to pick a laptop he would most likely choose one with a magnetic disk because it tends to be cheaper (it's not like he would read all the specs anyway).
Your argument that they are of more value because of the software is subjective, not objective and the parent post acknowledged that. And no one is talking about 11" netbooks here which you introduced as a strawman to beat down PCs. There are a lot of 15" and 14" LAPTOPS (not netbooks, geez, are you stuck in 2008?) that can be obtained below $500(the Air is much more expensive).
At this point, the subjective comparison is between a $500 basic 10" iPad vs. a 14" or 15" laptop for $500 or cheaper and your claim is the iPad beats the laptop in value for the general public which is a highly debatable claim given the iPads lack of physical keyboard and small screen.
See this:
Latitude E5510 Also Includes Intel Core i3 Dual Core 2.53GHz Windows 7 Home Premium 2GB 160GB 15.6" DVD ROM $499.00
That is neither a netbook, doesn't have a tiny screen either.
Whatever the post-PC devices might be, they don't seem to be cheaper than the PC devices.
The problem is that you can't really compare on specs. The problem I had with the article was that it compared it to the evolution from Mainframes to Minicomputers to PCs. Each step there, the cost was an order or more of magnitude cheaper(correct me if I am wrong).
When you can get "PCs" (a cheap crappy netbook is still a PC) for $280, the comparison falls apart completely.
Eg. You can get more than decent desktops for less than $500.
See:
Vostro 230s Also Includes Intel Core 2 Duo 2.93GHz Windows 7 Home Premium 64bit 2GB 500GB 21.5" Monitor DVD ROM $499.00
My problem was the premise of the article, not about the supposed "value" of the iPad.