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Comment by cactus2093 | Hacker News Reader

cactus2093

This is untrue. We may have plateaued but we haven't yet seen a significant drop from the peak yet. 4 days ago there were 115 deaths, then 93 the next day, then 89 the next, that's as high as the peak you're referring to. Source - daily department of health releases https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/OPA/Pages/New-Release-2020....

The drop you are inferring from your graph appears to be a be a reflection of a noisy data set, and the graph is a week out of date.

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We should separate LA from ex-LA. Bay area has peaked.. if you exclude nursing homes (which the lockdown relatively failed to protect), it's even sharper of a drop.

https://covid-19.direct/metro/BayArea

Unless you intend to setup border checkpoints, with two-week quarantine camps for people traveling from LA to the Bay area, you have to look holistically at the region.

It doesn't make one whit of sense to ban flights from Paris, but allow anyone who feels like it to drive up from LA.

Yeah that's definitely a day-of-week/reporting dump effect making that spike. The 7 day rolling data for deaths shows CA is only 6% below the most recent peak:

https://www.deptofnumbers.com/covid19/california/#deaths

nb: that's my site

Not to mention that death lags infection by 1-2 weeks, your site shows that pretty nicely (the lull in new infections several weeks ago mirrors the lull in new deaths).

We haven't crested the peak in death until a few weeks after we crest new infections, and it doesn't look like we've done that yet.

Remember death rates are an effect that's delayed several weeks. Positive tests are skewed by how many tests are done. Hospitalizations would be a better figure but those don't really seem to be available on a daily basis. This chart claims to show but it's 212 one day and zero the next, which just showing they're aggregate or something.

https://covid-19.direct/state/CA?tab=daily

That we have dropped 50% from the peak is true according to the site you linked as well...

https://update.covid19.ca.gov

115 deaths on April 22nd.

45 deaths on April 26th.

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