Build institutions, not apps
marklutter.com
marklutter.com
That sounds totally reasonable, lest your city become clogged with broken-ass scooters after the n-th scooter startup goes on their "incredible journey" to the stars.
Perhaps if you're going to litter the streets with scooters you should be required to post up cash in escrow for unlittering said scooters if/when you disappear.
Have you lived in SF? Because this comment reads like an outsider looking in.
Because the rents are still too affordable.
This is a colonial mindset and regards the eviction, impoverishment, and exile of other human beings as nothing compared to one's own desires. Yes they'll be replaced. That's what colonization is.
> Affordability has nothing to do with gentrification.
Today's gentrification is caused by wealthier people moving into neighborhoods, and making them less affordable. BUT this affordability reduction is relative to the price we were at before.
The price we were at before is already extremely unaffordable due to insane building restrictions and a NIMBY attitude baked into regulation.
If the city allowed the building of high-rises everywhere, would gentrification stop? No. Certain neighborhoods would get gentrified, and become relatively higher priced. Overall, however, city affordability would skyrocket.
It's probably not even possible to expand housing capacity to a significant degree in most locations it'd matters,
Even if it were, I contend the overall cost of living would go up dramatically (even in the hypothetical new high rises) due to transportation saturation and supply chain drama,
Also unless you literally double capacity everywhere what incentive do landlords (even new ones) have to moderate aggregate and individual rent growth? Since the state of the area is f'd today and demand is high, if there are any improvements demand can only go (dramatically) up.
This sounds like an excuse. The city of Tokyo alone builds more housing every year than the entire state of California: https://www.thenational.ae/business/property/want-affordable...
Tokyo is an in-demand city in an earthquake prone area, and they've managed to create enough housing to stay ahead of demand.
Also, personnaly I wouldn't be ready to live in a Tokyo flat and I suspect most of the target population isn't either. That we may not have a choice down the line is likely, but another issue.
For that price, you can get a bunk-bed in San Francisco [1]
[0] https://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/in/Tokyo
[1] https://sf.curbed.com/2019/7/18/20699340/podshare-san-franci...
The thing you are complaining about Are The Consequences of gentrification. They are the output of the process. The system you advocate for produces that which you are complaining about.
It's not going to be "cleaned up". This is what that process yields. Gentrification creates more "cracks to fall through" and so more people "fall through the cracks" through the financial consequences. These issues are the consequence of it - that's why it happens everywhere things are gentrifying.
These stratifications produce slums, favelas, cantegrils, gecekondus, barrios, karton siti, paraggoupoli, zopadpatti, baraccopoli, putri, perkampungan kumuh... there's words in almost every language for this phenomena. Policies are machines. They produce things.
This is the outcome of the process, globally, for centuries. You can not possibly get to your goal through that method. It does not work.
I know how alluring the logic is, but like counterintuitive math and science, the obvious solution does not work and we need to stop pretending otherwise. Reality doesn't give a damn about personal belief and stubbornness in systems that don't work. You can't will a wrong answer into being right.
It's the material reality.
The problem, as you say, is the cracks that people can fall through. Nobody should be sleeping rough and hungry in the richest country on earth. Solve that with a social safety net, not by banning new construction.
A market and property based approach that locks people out, allocates resources according to ability to pay or some other social status, and sees signs of inability to pay, poverty, and hardship including death, as merely personal moral failings, and the market consequences as some amoral natural system, that's gentrification. Maybe some think that's "the right way to do it" but it's also a really efficient slum creation engine.
We're set for 1/4th the world to be squatters by 2030, that's not sensationalistic, it's the reasonable expectation.
Historically this phenomena is found in immigrant or religious minority communities because they are thought to be less deserving. It's reinforcing because then they can be pointed at, in squalor, and say "see, I told you they were filthy". Racist policies lead to outcomes that differ on racial lines, duh...it was set up that way.
It's all foolish illogical nonsense that should have been tossed in the garbage in the 1700s with the other discarded superstitious rubbish. We can do better.
> A market and property based approach that locks people out, allocates resources according to ability to pay or some other social status, and sees signs of inability to pay, poverty, and hardship including death, as merely personal moral failings, and the market consequences as some amoral natural system, that's gentrification.
Yeah this is a disagreement about terminology. It sounds like you've just described a grab-bag of local social & political systems you don't like and you're attaching the word 'gentrification' to it all. We use the word 'gentrification' to describe things which happens in other places too, to mean different things, often in a non-perjorative way. Reusing that word to mean something similar but different is pretty confusing.
The city could also pick up any scooters that are in the way / abandoned and fine the owner company for each of them, which would be a big incentive for the company to deal with it themselves.
And some cities would be happy to. Problem is, scooter companies don't want to work together with cities! They just show up and open shop, Uber style...
> The city could also pick up any scooters that are in the way / abandoned and fine the owner company for each of them
...and then cry foul when that happens, because why, this is destroying innovation and assaulting honest businessmen.
Yes.
They're littering the streets. Beyond being just annoying, it creates a life-threatening hazard for the blind people. On top of that, they're used - as intended to be used - on the sidewalks, instead of the streets where they belong. This already killed many people around the world.
One idiot on a Bird copycat almost killed my then-9-months-pregnant wife, as he carelessly rode the sidewalk at high speed and didn't see passengers exiting the bus.
Cities have various policies towards innovation; some entangle everyone in red tape, others wave new ideas through. But the common thread of the famous SV startups in city space, and their copycats around the world, is building a business that dumps a lot of externalities on society, treating city councils as enemies, and then being surprised when said councils don't cooperate. If they want more friendly regulators, then perhaps they should be respectful towards said regulators (and people they represent).
Really? Technologists are offering real solutions to the challenges of poverty and inequality in America? Looking around at the bay area, you certainly could've fooled me.
Few would dispute that the U.S. is in a bad way. But judging from Silicon Valley's major successes of the past decade, at least some skepticism seems in order.
That is an extreme example (maybe necessary in gang infested areas of Mexico), but I wonder if it is time for communities to help themselves as much as they can, before looking to governments, institutions and billionaires. It sucks to be in this position though.
But nations do have the capacity to act rationally, so when I these posts and wonder if the world really needs more strategies. Do we need to spend more time strategizing, rather than getting on-board with the solutions that already have steam (as imperfect as they might be)?
Anyway, here is my contribution to the noise: https://paul.copplest.one/blog/why-nations-succeed.html
[1] happy/positive, whatever word you want without derailing the point of the comment
[2] for anyone with depression, please read this with positive intent. Depression is horrific and I wouldn't wish it on my enemiesI wouldn't be so sure about that.
I mean take right-wing arguments (given that HN and a lot of the internet is mostly left leaning), to them, blaming immigrants for a lack of jobs and keeping them out to preserve jobs is completely rational. Cause and effect, obvious solution, etc. Anti-vaxxers and other pseudoscience movements that have sprung up recently also feel perfectly rational about the BS they're sprouting. I mean from what I can see from here the earth is flat, that's a rational observation to make.
RE: depression. Being someone that's dealt with it, I'm sensitive to it being characterized as irrational - there is more than a little research that suggests that depression is perfectly rational, that it reflects reality. I know personally that what I find irrational is individuals/orgs/societies that are driven by the abuse of others, by obsession with material wealth and status by people that have done nothing other than be social climbers, to be part of a species that after thousands of years of history makes the same mistakes (see above discussion).
Just saying. Have a little understanding for where your friend is coming from. For you to call it irrational may only lead them further into it, were you to say as much.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Why_Nations_Fail
https://www.amazon.com/Economic-Origins-Dictatorship-Democra...
Thank you for your post, though.
This is actually the inspiration for my blog title. And I agree, it has a lot more data and is more thorough than what I've written so it's hard to be offended by pointing that out.
> I'm sensitive to it being characterized as irrational
My bad. This is the language that she came up with as a way of describing her behaviour to me (i'm probably a bit too far on the rational side and less on the empathy side). But we definitely agree with the causes you point out - her idea of a peaceful life is escaping society altogether
My brain chemistry is irreversibly fucked for lack of a better word, a little strategising might just give me a little hope, although false, hope is better than the clear and obvious solution to my woes.
>My brain chemistry is irreversibly fucked for lack of a better word
Are you sure it's completely irreversible?
I assume GP did a lot of searching and experimentation, and haven't found a solution. From my own experience I can tell that the process of searching itself is very draining, especially if your trial-and-error has to involve help from a specialist at each step. So at some point one just figures out a coping strategy and cuts their losses.
Yeah, I was very hesitant to ask so as not to seem like I didn't think they've looked into it..
All the best to you as well.
He cites some obviously real examples of institutional dysfunction (hi, San Francisco zoning!). But these examples are all (or are all portrayed as) institutions "hindering", "stifling" or "limiting" otherwise beneficial processes. This implies a worldview in which the only thing institutions do is get in the way of "the freedom to build", and the only implied remedy is to get them out of the way.
This is counterproductive, because it takes us straight back to the "government is [bad/good]" argument. These arguments haven't got us anywhere so far, even - indeed, especially - in Silicon Valley, which features one of the world's highest concentrations of libertarians.
(My amateur hypothesis: If you approach institutional reform with an agenda of dismantling those institutions, that's a recipe for scorched-earth resistance from anyone who believes in that institution's goals - however well or poorly that institution is currently functioning. This leads to the worst of both worlds: dysfunctional institutions, held in stasis by the tug-of-war going on around them.)
If you really believe in institution-building, you should be able to cite some examples of what they should be able to do more or better. Otherwise, you're just advocating old-school deregulation and calling it "building".
Tyler Cowen's summary of "state capacity libertarianism", which this article cites, is much preferable on this score: It is explicit about what Cowen believes institutions should do (and do well), as well as what they should not: https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2020/01/wh...
I think this is a good question, why do tech companies spend so little money on YIMBY lobbying? (At most a few million, AFAIK.)
Andrew Carnegie was a robber baron bastard, but it was him actually cutting checks that gave us museums and concert halls that persist to this day.
The Silicon Valley "elite" like to bitch, but they want everyone else to cut the check.
The reconstructed Globe Theatre in London ran into a problem while it was being designed: thatched roofs had been illegal for hundreds of years. So, they had to go through the process of certifying a fire suppression system, getting everything approved, and then demonstrating that it was safe before opening.
Sam Wanamaker was the person who persisted and cut checks--even in the face of LOTS of government resistance: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sam_Wanamaker
I find Ezra Klein's recent line here useful:
"[W]hatever the recommendations, the same thing is needed: A sustained and concerted movement that cares about institutional reform. But people get much more excited about building something, anything, than about reforming existing institutions. Meta-building isn’t a popular pastime, and the patient, focused work it requires is particularly frustrating, in my experience, to entrepreneurial personalities." [1]
I confess that I myself find it incredibly frustrating. See a government program that's incredibly difficult to deal with, friction-laden up and down, with reams of paperwork with legalese?
One can build a layer on top that eliminates most or all of the friction. But it will always be limited by the resource models that can sustain it. And many problems simply have no workable models other than state financing and operation (market failure, in other words).
Instead, doing the work to make that program much better institutionally involves long-term (frustrating) strategies like:
- Think tanks / white papers: influencing the epistemic landscape among policymakers
- Organizing: shifting the Overton Window to make the change you want to see broadly accepted
- Coalition-building: working with allies with overlapping agendas to get more muscle behind your own priorities
And even... waiting. You often have to wait — years! decades! — for a window to come where you can get a big thing done. People worked on big healthcare reform for 3 decades of effectively zero progress — and then in a year they passed Obamacare.
That work is long, hard, much more probabilistic than product work, and much less directly-controllable by a given person.
BUT there are playbooks to get it done. And I do wish technologists looked to those tools more to make the institutional changes we need to make it so the opportunities (individual and societal) of entrepreneurship were more widely accessible.
One concrete example: I've long thought that a basic source of friction in public services is because user experience isn't well-monitored, and therefore not well-considered in public policy decisions.
Technologists are great at measuring friction. It is a craft well-honed in an environment where conversion is a live-or-die metric. But translating that craft into institutional change requires something like a think tank, and/or an organized movement with an agenda.
I think we'll get there, but it will take some risk-takers who understand that long game and financial backers who aren't as well-versed in it, but who have the risk tolerance of SV and the savvy to see that playbook does work, and point it at a problem with significant leverage.
[1] https://www.vox.com/2020/4/22/21228469/marc-andreessen-build...
A startup that dies quickly after proving itself non-viable is a good thing, because it doesn't take money or attention from investors anymore. And if the founders were any good, they've learned things that will be useful on their next venture.
A startup that shows large exponential growth is the best, because the investors can sell the hot potato to a bigger fool before it implodes or gets gutted by the buyer. This kind of company is the whole reason behind tech investment.
The worst is the sustainable, slowly growing business. Such company isn't going to bring home 10x return for the investors. And it stubbornly refuses to die. The people running such company are more proven than random first-time founders, so it would be better, from investor POV, if they just killed their company and get back to the startup game.
Hence failing, folding and starting anew is admired and encouraged. Because it's better for the investors than succeeding, but not succeeding big.
Technologists playing a more active role in government?
VCs in cabinet positions?
The idea that a city can 'target' a population is laughable and absolutely terrible. Honestly, I stopped reading right there.
Politics is quite complex and full of its own jargon. It is not simple to understand.
Why not to develop apps, which will streamline a complex political process? Take zoning for example. There are new construction hearings, which only few NIMBYists attend, while pro-builders do not even know where to search for those. Say I'm a pro-builder busy with my own career. I have many questions. Where are those hearings held? Can I attend them, or there are some requirements? How do I meet those requirements? Is there any voting taking place? Where is it actually decided whether to build or not? What is the next action I can take given I am an average city dweller able to dedicate few hours per month for politics? If there is an app that would bring the tasks down to small actionable points with descriptions, and offer simplest step by step instructions, I may find it actually fun to do.
The reason is that the work you're describing (which is effectively organizing) doesn't have the unit economics of tech automation.
All of this info can be created but it's pretty hard for a computer to generate it because of the specifics of every project, across every different city/municipality.
Layer on top of that the fact that the biggest bottleneck is the activation energy it requires for people to actually show up, and an app is just less effective.
But you know what turns out to work shockingly well? A social aspect to organizing. Have everyone show up to the meeting, and go grab a drink after together to bond and make it so that folks feel good and want to do it again, that they feel a part of it.
Personally I think government and politics are one of the most rotten places, so try to avoid it as much as u can.