I've often wondered what real impact it would have if an American football team decided, as a rule, to never punt and always go for it on 4th down. Current strategy highly favors punting, even in circumstances when that seems obviously non-optimal, and I'd like to know whether we can calculate specific scenarios for which it's better to punt or go for it. Right now the whole thing seems very fuzzy, and I think the biggest driver is a coaching staff's fear of failing by doing something different.
I've heard of people running simulations on Madden, for example, but I'm not sure if that offers the sort of hooks into the AI that it would take to alter strategy to that degree.