https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13563467.2019.15...
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13563467.2019.15...
It's too early to tell if we can "fix" climate change (we might only mitigate the worst of it depending on the atmospheric CO2 PPM high water mark we land at) but if we're going to implement extraordinary socioeconomic policy, we should head in the right direction and adjust as needed along the way. Many can be trained to install solar panels and wind turbines, to upgrade electrical infrastructure, to install EV charging stations, or rooftop solar. These are all jobs that you cannot outsource to a developing country, jobs that have traditionally paid a reasonable wage.
We're going to spend the money we're printing [2] anyway, we might as well give success an honest shot. There are much worse ways we've spent trillions of dollars our economy has produced, or that we've borrowed from a future that couldn't consent to said borrowing [3]. We're already on the right path [4], it’s time we deliberately choose to succeed.
"We choose to go to the moon. We choose to go to the moon in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard, because that goal will serve to organize and measure the best of our energies and skills, because that challenge is one that we are willing to accept, one we are unwilling to postpone, and one which we intend to win, and the others, too." -- JFK
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Deal#Relief
[2] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL (St Louis Fed: Federal Reserve Total Assets)
[3] https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/20/us-spent-6point4-trillion-on... (America has spent $6.4 trillion on wars in the Middle East and Asia since 2001, a new study says)
[4] https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/0... (NPR: Pandemic Shutdown Is Speeding Up The Collapse Of Coal)
Instead, it's probably better for the government to be the salary provider of last resort, via some basic income (universal or otherwise) or a negative income tax, and then imposing steep taxes on externalities.
Keep in mind that we already have a negative income tax in the US: the Earned Income Tax Credit. We're really just talking about expanding that.
I think that modifying the Earned Income Tax Credit (which was introduced by Nixon, then expanded by Reagan) by further expanding it, and then removing the employment requirement is a way easier sell to Americans than fundamentally shifting towards central planning.
If we’re talking about climate, it’s probably far easier and far more effective to institute steep carbon taxes. It should be very easy to do that especially now, oil is the cheapest that it’s ever been.
Regardless, we know there's a flame there. Let's at least try to move it away a few cm, if possible, since that's the only thing we have control of.
If human beings had any sense at all, we'd accept that we cannot control the climate and we'd do well to prepare for either a warmer or cooler climate. In other words, we should be adaptable. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lyapunov_time
We understand weather far better than we understand climate. And we cannot predict it more than 10 days into the future.
At any rate of you want to hear it from true experts here are a few:
Richard Lindzen, PhD Atmospheric Sciences, MIT https://youtu.be/X2q9BT2LIUA
Patrick Moore, UBC https://youtu.be/kHZKo13HV2A
Henrik Svensmark, Danish Space Institute https://youtu.be/wU1qg8HceGI
Freeman Dyson, Cornell https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=BiKfWdXXfIs
NASA admitting they have no model for clouds: https://youtu.be/ra9AFNco3lI
Let's play a coin game. We'll throw a fair coin 100,000 times. Beforehand, I predict the number of heads +-0.5%. If I'm right, 1,000$ for me, if I'm wrong, 1000$ for you.
The probability that my prediction is correct is more than 99.8%. Nevertheless, I can predict a single coin flip only with a 50% chance.
A single coin flip represents a weather forecast. Climate, however, is the long term average, represented by the total number of heads. Even if I cannot predict the individual events (like tomorrows weather), I can say something about the averages with high probability.
Humans can control human behavior. Just because other, uncontrollable risks exist does not mean we should just give up.
While there are large error margins due to that non-linearity, literally all of our evidence (including causative models, e.g. grade school greenhouse science experiments) indicates bad things. Those may not come to pass, or they may not be human related -- nothing is certain -- but there's precious little evidence in the other direction.
Outcomes may vary, you are right. Yet nearly all available evidence suggests we should accept AGW as the most likely situation, while accepting there may be other, more accurate predictions. We should change our behavior only once new evidence comes in indicating a different conclusion.