A recent estimate puts R at around 0.92-0.98 in Sweden, which means that it’s right around the treshold of sustained epidemic vs staying under control. If people start to become more lax around social distancing restrictions, it could shift the balance back up over the treshold.

It is that things are bad and avoiding a lock down didn't work - unfortunately any tactical decision you make takes about three weeks to really show evidence of efficacy.

I don't know what your new sources are. The rates of death and infection vary a lot between regions in Sweden so any significant herd immunity is probably regional.