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I'm convinced that everything has infinite fractal complexity and it's a fool's errand to reduce most non-trivial situations to metaphors or explicit systems. As I get older, I rely on instinct/gut more. Just like a master chess player doesn't see 10 possible moves before him, evaluating each as the start of a sequence. He sees just one move, the best one, based on his experience.

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> I'm convinced that everything has infinite fractal complexity and it's a fool's errand to reduce most non-trivial situations to metaphors or explicit systems.

I think I agree with you. I also think there's a dangerous temptation to fail to recognize that foolishness, and cultivate a false impression of understanding by almost denying the reality of things some cherished model doesn't handle. That temptation increases with the elegance of the model and the number of limited cases where it can be applied with reasonable success.

Interestingly enough, people really good at understanding the complexity in systems are also people that seem to fall prey to, as you said, cultivating a false impression of understanding. Taleb is one that I think deserves criticism in that regard.

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