Hacker News Reader

Comment by 737min | Hacker News Reader

Prediction: Lambda will be out of business within 12 months.

It’s an empty, pointless prediction; easy and uncontroversial to make now when things look grim (for everyone), and zero cost to you if it turns out to be wrong.

I know little about the details of Lambda School’s business, but they seem like they’re in a good position to do well in an economic downturn and recovery, if they stay focused and prudent, which seems to be exactly what they’re trying to do now.

12 months is a bit arbitrary if taken literally, but I think the writing was already on the wall for bootcamps as an industry before the current economic crisis. Bootcamps that only get paid when their graduates get jobs are even worse off - if hiring falls for software engineers, its going to the be the bottom tier candidates that get hit hardest. Folks coming out of a short program with little to no other experience are going to be greatly disadvantaged when experienced folks with better education are getting laid off and competing for a reduced pool of jobs.

Successful startups aren't like bottles floating at sea, being carried to success or failure by the waves and currents.

Sure, favourable macro trends help, but the ones that succeed do so because they best figure out how to adapt to changing conditions.

Lambda School has complete freedom to change everything they do to survive and thrive in the new environment.

Let's see what they do.

If they go bankrupt I wonder if they'll sell off the Income Share Agreements or if they expire or something.

They’re already bundled and sold on the Edly ISA Marketplace: https://lambdaschool.com/the-commons/announcing-our-new-isa-..., https://edly.info/investors/

Not to be cynical here but such a marketplace allows buying/selling human capital... i.e. slave market.

The ISA buyer doesn’t have any control of or influence over whether or how much someone works (nor how much they earn). If the ISA seller wants to spend their whole life relaxing on a beach, they can.

So, although you may not like ISAs, comparing it to slavery trivializes actual slavery.

Also, it seems like you’re being cynical without realizing it.

I have no first hand knowledge of Lambda and maybe they're the worst thing ever, but whenever I see a comment dripping with venom that doesn't even make any sense to me, I think what on earth do these people think of conventional rip-off for-profit schools that you pay up front?

Willing to provide some background reasoning for this prediction?

Not the OP, nor am I a bear on Lambda School, but I'll articulate the bear case.

Lambda School is just another source of talent/human capital to a company. And companies suddenly aren't hiring and probably won't be for a while. And if they aren't hiring, Lambda School can't place students. And if they can't place students, then there are no ISAs, which is how Lambda makes its money. It's a straightforward funnel that's about to have a ton of supply and less demand, with Lambda bearing the financial burden to train/education the people. On top of that, if you have a bunch of people taking all this time to be trained under the pretense of getting a pretty good paying job and now that's not going to happen, well you're not going to be too thrilled with Lambda School (rightly or wrongly). So you've got, potentially, a double whammy: less revenue and your best marketing channel (word of mouth) going south. Not great.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com