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Comment by edoo | Hacker News Reader

They knew within a week or two that the lockdowns had no effect. We converged right to the same level as Sweden. That they kept pushing it is insane.

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What explains the difference between NY and CA if it isn't lockdowns? The difference in death per capita between the two is staggering (nearly 30x more people per capita have died in NY than CA).

Lots of things could explain it. Here are some:

- The way deaths are counted in each state

- Daily Temperature

- Comorbidity percentage difference for residents - https://covid19tracker.health.ny.gov/views/NYS-COVID19-Track...

Also population density. In NYC, a higher % of the population is touching shared surfaces such as doors and elevator buttons just to get outside.

That wouldn't affect IFR

We don't have an IFR, we have a CFR, which would be affected. Remember, all we know thus far is the numerator and a low-confidence denominator.

> - Daily Temperature

it's been unseasonably cool in socal for the duration of this so i doubt it's that.

The stay-at-home order can't itself have made a 30x difference, because New York only imposed it 3 days later than California. California started social distancing in general earlier and better, but I don't think anyone would dispute that social distancing in general matters. (In fact I think that's the obvious explanation, that due to the nature of NYC many people can't social distance to a useful degree.)

Air pollution? Well no. L.A. smog. But, there are signs higher NO and diesel particulate are a problem.

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