But I think people are (relatively) better at explaining past events when it comes to stock market.
Is it because market is optimistic businesses will open and business will be usual in few weeks.
Optimistic about arrival of vaccine
... ?
Thanks
I think the thing people don't understand about the market, is buying stock is buying a right to participate in a company's future earnings and risk -- it's _forward_ looking. Where as most economic data (jobs reports, earnings, etc) is _backward_ looking - by the time we get that data, it's effectively already priced-in in an efficient market.
If I'm buying right now, I'm thinking stocks are actually on sale; I get more for my money - and I'm looking to hold for multiple years, so any one day's news good or bad doesn't really matter to me.
I agree with your metrics as lagging indicators. I am still puzzled at the growth these days after the selloff.
I know this is the case because I invested my entire life savings on this one. (I have been glued to CNBC and E*TRADE.) I decided to start buying on March 16th...
Stimulus would only prevent (some) companies from going bankrupt. So at best it avoid crash. Not sure why market is optimistic though.
I believe that TSLA will ultimately end up on the very high end of where ARK invest says they'll be: https://ark-invest.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Tesla-pric...
Tesla's Battery Day is coming in May, and that's a very big deal. I expect they'll announce that they've hit $100/kWh (which is the point you need to be at in order to sell an electric car with a price and range comparable to a gas car). The fact that they have the world's best battery tech is also very important for the future industries like eVTOL, which are completely dependent on these things. (I have a position in EH as well...)
I hold a position in WYNN. I also think that the CEO has a realistic plan for opening in May, and we should all get behind that.