The US intelligence community was watching mid-November.

Singapore started screening incoming travelers Jan 3, based on the pneumonia cluster in Wuhan growing in size.

Xi found out about it and took aggressive measures ~Jan 21.

It was an obvious risk on Jan 3. Maybe not a high probability risk, but obvious enough for a country to make sure they had the first couple of steps of their response at least figured out. Human to human spread was pretty clearly the case when the Chinese government started taking aggressive lockdown measures.

So your timeline is pretty friendly.

And then the focus on ventilators is odd. How about masks and other PPE and testing and so on?