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His project[1] was part of program created by IARPA[2] so I wouldn't be that skeptical

[1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Good_Judgment_Project

[2]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intelligence_Advanced_Research...

Are these what the book is based off of? Or are these just the credentials of the author? In the former case I would find that more compelling to be worth looking into than just the link to the amazon book. In any case, I wasn’t trying to specifically dismiss the book (which I have not read) but just pointing out that linking to book of that sort doesn’t give me (personally) the feeling that there is much weight behind the citation. The other links you provided do the opposite!

Yes the book is based on that project.

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