$40 million per day = $14.6 billion per year
The GDP of California is $2.75 trillion.
Your low end estimate of 100x would be a 53% drop in California's GDP, while the 1000x estimate seems impossible.
So OK, make that 10 to 100 times greater.
Are you saying that you disagree that California losing 500% of its GDP seems impossible?
The sheer number of n'th order effects of this crisis might just mean that most of the economic pain is in the long, fat tail spanning decades into the future.
Amortize that cost as irreversible economic damage and it might be implausible, sure, but not inconceivable.
For instance, we're (probably) negatively impacting kids education, that's going to have a negative impact on the economy for the next 50+ years. If we fuck up the food supply chains too badly (e.g. migrant works, locusts in africa [1], etc) more kids will suffer from malnutrition, which has a long term effect. Increased poverty rates from the shutdown will likely increase crime rates (and have many other ill effects), which will have a long term effect. Putting the economy into a recession will no doubt significantly slow down all sorts of R&D work delaying useful (and even life saving) inventions. And so and and so forth.
https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/04/africas-huge-locust-...