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Comment by Trasmatta | Hacker News Reader

Do you think we'll ever conclusively know either way? If that is the truth, China will obviously continue to do everything it can to cover it up. And circumstantial evidence doesn't seem like enough.

I'm not taking a stance either way, I really am curious on whether we'll be able to come to a pretty firm conclusion on it.

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I'm not sure. If this was a lab accident(big if), it's possible that a whistleblower could succeed in defecting. I'm guessing Western intelligence agencies also are hard at work at this issue, using assets and technologies we probably aren't aware of.

Regardless, it shouldn't be our primary focus at this time. But sooner rather than later, we need to determine exactly how this happened so we can avoid it in the future. If it was a wet market, then by God China needs to shut them down permanently (wet markets are opening back up now, which is another reason I suspect it was a lab). If it was an accidental lab release, we must demand much higher safety standards, and make sure that's enforced.

This pandemic could have been so much worse. Next time, it could destroy modern civilization.

It's not over by a long shot. Hard to say if "modern civilization" will ever be the same...

In what ways do you predict it changing?

If we can compare the virus from the lab from what actually broke out in the wild, I think we could come to some high probability conclusions, yeah.

But wouldn't China actively work to prevent that from happening?

Possibly, but it could be leaked in a way to alternative sources to vet and verify.

All I'm saying is that I agree, Long Bet #9 should definitely not be dismissed. It's way too early.

This has been done. Spoiler: the virus is not from the lab.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-chinas-bat-wo...

The problem is that all these articles rely on assumption that China is trustworthy, while it absolutely is not. I do not understand, why so many people immediately deny the whole possibility that the virus came out of the lab, as if was some heretic idea. I mean, a scientist has to be open-minded; taking into account the systemic unreliability of Chinese information, rigidity of their political system, recent orders to not publish information about the origins of the virus there is no way someone should rule out the possibility of accidental release. I saw in some other posts a point that if it was true a war is unavoidable, and therefore it is a "bad, dangerous" hypothesis and in needs to be suppressed. Well science does not work this way.

> I do not understand, why so many people immediately deny the whole possibility that the virus came out of the lab, as if was some heretic idea.

Take some solace in that sentiment is shifting to "it's possible". A month ago when I asked about it here, my comment was not only heavily downvoted, but there was no support in the replies and my comment was flagged. Now at least there seem to be enough people questioning it that the possibility is at least being taken seriously.

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