"At least 50% of the population of both the UK and Sweden will be shown to have already had the disease when mass antibody testing becomes available"
"The results will eventually be similar for all countries"
"Covid-19 is a “mild disease” and similar to the flu, and it was the novelty of the disease that scared people."
> "At least 50% of the population of both the UK and Sweden will be shown to have already had the disease when mass antibody testing becomes available"
It's just pure speculation at the moment. You don't take life or death decision based on such optimistic speculation. This is just irresponsible.
Not more or less irresponsible than large-scale lockdowns. Don't kid yourself and think the lockdowns were evidence-driven and accounted for knock-on effects. They were desperation moves.
Lockdowns were not irrational, just the fruit on not having enough masks ans test ready on time for selective quarantine.
https://www.statnews.com/2018/09/26/cdc-us-flu-deaths-winter...
Projected deaths for COVID-19 are 70K through July.
"In recent years, flu-related deaths have ranged from about 12,000 to — in the worst year — 56,000, according to the CDC."
This is not to mention that these estimates include non flu deaths to compensate for the fact that not every dead person gets tested for the flu and even those that are, often wouldn't be documented as flu deaths. For example, if COVID-19 was merely a minor outbreak, COVID-19 deaths would be counted towards flu deaths, as the cause of the death would be viral pneumonia and viral pneumonia is statistically likely to be caused by the flu.
The reverse isn't close to true - we're for the most part only attributing deaths to COVID-19 when it's either a confirmed case or otherwise overwhelmingly likely to be caused by it. It's a certainty that COVID-19 will end up killing more people in the month of April than the flu kills most years.
So the contagiousness of the disease actually reduces the mortality rate quite a lot, more so than uncounted deaths in the numerator.
Secondly if you do the same thing for the flu, put confirmed flu deaths over confirmed flu cases (tested) the mortality for flu is 4%. This would be the apples to apples comparison.
They're already doing antibody testing in other countries and the numbers are much lower than 50%.
In Santa Clara county, California, the estimate is only 2.49% to 4.16%
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/04/17/heal...
https://chicagocitywire.com/stories/530092711-roseland-hospi...
Santa Clara was testing from the general population.
https://medium.com/@wpegden/a-call-to-honesty-in-pandemic-mo...
This was shown in the difference in death rates in Wuhan vs other cities in China. ...as well as northern Italy vs other provinces in Italy.
The chart you linked to bears that out. As itself says, it's excluding estimated delays from the last 7 days, so the last really solid numbers are up to April 10th. Everything before that is increasing exponentially. Even if we assume the backlog has stopped increasing (blue bars getting bigger), which is what the grey estimates are based upon, then Sweden is still getting another 70 or so deaths per day, which means the per-capita death rate is going up by 7/million every day.
Are those the things you agree with most or are those things you disagree with?