Yep. I was skeptical about if they were beatable initially.
> Markets were illiquid.
Not always true. This varies a lot between markets. If you look at the Democratic nominee markets, you can buy as many shares you like.
> $850 limit
This is per bracket. So you can max No on several candidates in a market if you want, and PI also refunds the amount that is impossible to lose since only one can resolve as Yes. There are also a lot of correlated markets that are effectively the same bet. You can bet on Biden being the nominee at least 4 different ways if you want.
> Bets can take a long time to settle.
You can sell at any point in time. No need to wait. There are long and short term markets.
If there was something 50% that was 90%, I'd have no problem taking that bet. But it's something like a 2020 election you can always wait until closer to the election. Though some markets appreciate during that span of time.
> dumb technicalities
> Powell being next Fed chair
Always read the rules. All predictions are useless without a time.
Powell market was free money. The good players were telling people the correct answer in the comments for months but people didn't want to listen. Amazing.
> aren't you smart enough to make more money doing almost anything else?
That's what I was aiming for before the economic shock, but it's not like people think "Oh you won money at bet on politics? Here is job"