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Comment by casperb | Hacker News Reader

Same here. We have provide a warehouse management system specifically for e-commerce warehouses, as SaaS. We are (one of) the biggest player in the Netherlands, and since "social distancing" started here 4 weeks ago we see Black Friday 2019 levels of orders every day, for 4 weeks straight now.

We have some customers that saw there orders come to a stop, even a few bankruptcies already. But almost all see a 30-40% bigger order flow. Some customers that sell DIY hair products see a doubling or tripling in orders per day and revenue.

When I talk to the biggest e-commerce players in the Netherlands and the top 3 parcel shippers, they all see (near) black friday levels of orders/shipments.

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Same in France, most makeup brands are x2-x3, fashion is x1.5 to x6

In France there is no increase of unemployment, instead they are at home getting paid, I guess they have a lot of money to spend as they can't party or go the restaurant

It is actually quite visible here : https://contentsquare.com/covid-19-ecommerce-impact-data-hub...

France's unemployment numbers don't include the many contract workers that are not full time employees under French law. A lot of them are out of work right now and receiving nothing from the French government.

Because French law makes it so hard to fire a full-time employee, many businesses only hire workers on a part-time basis.

In contrast, most US unemployment numbers generally include all individuals seeking work, regardless of the type of employment they previously had.

False, unemployment numbers include part-time and fixed-term contracts, and they've only gone up 42k compared to last year[1]. Part-time and fixed-term contracts are covered under the French partial furlough reimbursement plan.

[1] https://www.lesechos.fr/economie-france/social/coronavirus-h...

The French numbers are more than 42,000. Under the partial furlough program, they've simply re-labeled unemployed workers to be "partially furloughed" workers rather than unemployed.

Using that definition, the US COVID-related unemployment numbers aren't nearly as bad, since millions have been "furloughed" rather than "permanently laid off."

The devil is in the details.

People always say unemployment is undercounted, especially in the US, but I believe the rates are based on surveying people and anyone is counted if they say they want to work (more).

I'm very skeptical that furloughed people would not be counted, because I just don't think the process works that way.

Of course, maybe things have changed. The depressing thing about cynicism is it means you end up having no resistance to it becoming a reality.

Only 9 million people in furlough (with gov benefits); so a third of the working population. The economic shock is going to be brutal.

Don't think so for France. The state gives too good benefits and it already announced it will be maintaining paychecks for all unemployed.

However that's billions over billions of new debt taken, and it's gonna be brutal to pay back in the next decade.

Is it going to be more or less brutal than the $2 trillion in the US?

It's hoarding though. Nobody is going to be wearing that makeup right now until they can start going out. Sales are going to crater once everyone has their 4 years supply. And that too will be devastating to companies

I don't think that's right. My wife puts makeup on before her video conferences every day.

My girlfriend hasn't put on makeup since the quarantine started even though she has multiple video meetings a day.

Also anecdotally, my aunt is a teacher and she only puts on makeup when she's recording stuff for her classses.

This sounds like the lipstick effect [0] - consumers buy inexpensive luxuries when they're feeling cash-strapped. Tends to be a leading indicator of recessions (though I don't suggest that's the exact phenomenon that's happening here)

[0] https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/lipstick-effect.asp

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