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Comment by btbuildem | Hacker News Reader

Software development: how to make realistic estimates, and deliver a solution on time.

Only possible if you don't do anything novel. If you are building a website that's got all the same patterns as the previous 5 websites you've built, then you can provide a solid estimate and deliver on time.

If you're building something that nobody has ever made before, you've got unknown unknowns, and your best bet is intuition, which is inevitably going to miss the mark a bit.

And if you repeat something 5 times, you probably already started automating that anyway.

Software Development: How to identify unknown unknowns and communicate the effects of scope creep?

Don't you want something simpler, like P=NP or the Riemann Hypothesis?

Just kidding. The problem with estimates in SwEng is complicated. The main problem is: every system is different from another.

Anything that's moderately complex will have a variable production time because the process keeps getting improved.

Now, you're not building 10 systems of the same type. Maybe if what you did all day was building, let's say, a blog with RoR you would be able to time it to the minute (but then again, that's not how software works, and once you built it once, it's just a matter of copying files).

In traditional "factories" the design takes some time, then putting together the production line, tools, then the production.

In SW, "real" design and production go together, and "paper sw design" is fragile.

This has been the worst for me. It seems near impossible to properly calculate edge-case development, alongside core functionality, while also building a good UX.

I am a developer. My go-to answer for "What is your weakness" type interview questions is that I am bad at estimates.

interviewers want an example of a problem you've identified and are actively mitigating. they want to hear what solution you've created to deal with your own weakness. if you're giving the same answer you would've given a year ago, i have doubts that you're providing a compelling answer to the question.

Make a wild guess then multiply it by a number between 2 (10+ years of experience) and 4 (newbie). Works pretty well.

Just stop paying devs by the hour.

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