No. This is reasonably predictable in the short term. You would have to have better knowledge than the market to be able to profit.
If the whole market expects depressed gdp grow and you get depressed gdp growth, you have no edge.
If the whole market expects depressed gdp grow and you get depressed gdp growth, you have no edge.
More seriously, you emphasize a most important point. The delta of information is precisely where it's at.
I wonder if this is exactly the same thing as what we call "bias" in trading / investing. (as a function of some objective knowledge + subjective experience)
I mean, we all have the same information but if my bias happens to be correct, I will be able to outperform others (however much depends on how much risk I'm willing to take, how much hedging I conversely do). That's the delta I create with taking a stance, when I press that button, which conditions I choose to enter/increase/reduce/exit a given asset.
Curious how you see it.