China and India grew substantially during the recession, just at a lower rate than they would have. No such luck this time.
How do you know that? If you could predict that for certain, you could turn 10000$ into 1000000$ with ease.
If the whole market expects depressed gdp grow and you get depressed gdp growth, you have no edge.
More seriously, you emphasize a most important point. The delta of information is precisely where it's at.
I wonder if this is exactly the same thing as what we call "bias" in trading / investing. (as a function of some objective knowledge + subjective experience)
I mean, we all have the same information but if my bias happens to be correct, I will be able to outperform others (however much depends on how much risk I'm willing to take, how much hedging I conversely do). That's the delta I create with taking a stance, when I press that button, which conditions I choose to enter/increase/reduce/exit a given asset.
Curious how you see it.