Coronavirus Vaccine Prospects
blogs.sciencemag.org
blogs.sciencemag.org
Also sometimes extremely funny. Read https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/category/thin... for good examples of that.
https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2010/02/23/th...
The stakes are so high this time that it's important _as soon as_ testing results are deemed adequate, they can start distributing them, even if it means manufacturing stuff that doesn't ultimately pan out.
Unfortunately we live in a country where anywhere between 18% and 31% (depending on the question/pool) of the population doesn't believe in evolution at all.
https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/how-many-c...
There is a guy I know who thinks ID2020 is a secret plan of Bill Gates for giving everyone a chip and track everyone ( that's the conspiracy theory), based on some so called "Anon YouTube movies"
Instead of believing that Gates already had the experience with Ebola, to foresee that the world is not ready for a global pandemic.
His words literally were ( as a response):
> Forget it. Nothing will change my mind, bro.
It's absolutely nuts. Some of them also believe that 5G cause Corona and in chemtrails.
There is literally no logic that can change their mind, lol.
An article about the subject can be found here: https://www.thenewhumanitarian.org/news/2020/04/15/id2020-co...
Because Gates was what Zuckerburg is today. The real question is why are there so many Gates' supporters?
> I mean he's in philanthropy etc
Yes, following in Rockefeller's footsteps. "Philanthropy" is a PR move. Gates probably has the world's best PR team.
> Just boggles my mind
Probably because you don't come from a CS/tech background.
In 20 or 30 years, zuckerburg is going to set up a family "charity" and the masses will worship him as a saint. Setting up "family controlled charities" is probably the most effective PR move amongst the uber-wealthy. Building hospitals is another one. Donating to schools is another. These people didn't grow a conscious when they retired, they just bought a world class PR team.
And his foundation’s charter even specifies that the money needs to be spent within 30 or so years of his death, meaning he doesn’t get the sort of immortality Carnegie/Rockefeller/Ford/Lilly did.
In other words, he gave himself the money via a tax protected vehicle? How noble.
> What, exactly, is he getting in PR that’s possibly worth $38+ billion?
He's not paying $38 billion. He still has it. That's the point. He's paying nothing for good press. Getting people to defend him for moving his money from one place to a tax protected sheltered and being praised for it. Kinda like how you are doing it.
> And his foundation’s charter even specifies that the money needs to be spent within 30 or so years of his death, meaning he doesn’t get the sort of immortality Carnegie/Rockefeller/Ford/Lilly did.
"Spent". You mean setting up other charities, scholarships, etc are set up.
1. mRNA-1273 (lipid nanoparticle encapsulated mRNA vaccine encoding S protein) by Moderna: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04283461
2. Ad5-nCoV (Adenovirus type 5 vector that expresses S protein) by CanSino Biologicals: NCT04313127.
3. INO-4800 (DNA plasmid encoding S protein delivered by electroporation) by Inovio Pharmaceuticals: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/record/NCT04336410
4. LV-SMENP-DC (Dendritic cell modified with lentiviral vector expressing synthetic minigene based on domains of selected viral proteins; administered with antigen-specific cytotoxic T lymphocyte) by Shenzhen Geno-Immune Medical Institute: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04276896
5. Pathogen-specific artificial antigen-presenting cell (aAPCs modified with lentiviral vector expressing synthetic minigene based on domains of selected viral proteins) by Shenzhen Geno-Immune Medical Institute: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04299724
There are good reasons vaccines take years to be approved. I’m very worried we’ll see a repeat of historical mistakes in the current rush.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cutter_Laboratories#The_Cutt...
It seems to me that rushing the timelines potentially opens up a lot of risks for post-vaccine side effects. Doesn't it?
[0] Even if shortcuts ... can be found, it is unlikely that a vaccine would be available earlier than 6 months after the initiation of clinical trials. Realistically, SARS-CoV-2 vaccines will not be available for another 12–18 months. From: https://www.cell.com/immunity/fulltext/S1074-7613(20)30120-5...
[1] https://www.cell.com/action/showFullTableHTML?isHtml=true&ta...
There is zero incentive to make a vaccine for the common cold. Let me introduce you to the multi-tens of billion dollar OTC common cold treatment market.
Depends what you mean by "need". If you're talking about a risk/benefit calculation for getting a vaccination, I expect it will play out very differently for high-risk elderly folks vs low-risk young adults.
A small quantity of the virus could be introduced to your leg where it is away from your lungs and bloodstream. Your body could fight the virus there.
Live ones, that are exactly like you said, low infectious strain, and dead ones, where they kill the virus and it sometimes still produces correct antibodies.
there are several of such types of vaccines in development
I haven't seen an explanation of South Korea then. Are they faking their statistics too? If not, then China's reported stats don't seem so incredible.
Not to mention any attempts at quantifying what's the level of the alleged manipulation of the data. Is it suspected to be undercounted by an order of magnitude? Two orders? Three orders? Why?
I happen to believe SK's report's (long explanation), I happen not to believe China's (looonger explanation), but my opinion really doesn't matter; US officials don't believe the China and that's before considering the US's response may have already been hampered by NIMBYism (https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/us-coronavirus-test/)
Yeah that’s frightening, but really true? I’ve never heard of a single person dying from the flu vaccine locally.
Meanwhile, In the US 12.x k people at a minimum died of this in the last 7 days, doubling the previous total deaths. There's also a much higher death rate overall than in the past, many of those must be related to covid-19 [1]. If current trends follw, In another week the 25,000 total current deaths will double, in other words, 25,000 are on track to die of covid in a week. It's not just new york; from that same site, in the last 7 days new york's total went from 7k to 15k total cumulative deaths - new york is still doubling every week, even though they look to slow down.
The deadly statistics are fantastically interesting. NY itself had about 8k net new deaths the last week, the rest of the us had about 10k. Both are doubling on a weekly basis.
As soon as isolation is lifted, whether that be in a month or 10 years, the spread will resume. Unless of course either a) herd immunity is developed or b) a vaccine is developed.
We've only ever eradicated one infectious disease in all of human history (smallpox) and we had a vaccine for that. See: https://www.historyofvaccines.org/index.php/content/articles...
As I mentioned above, we have only ever erradicated _one_ infectious disease in all of human history. The chances of COVID, with its highly infectious nature, being the second are quite slim.
Just like the first outbreak, all it takes is one person with the virus to start the whole process over again.
All international travel is going to be restricted for a very long time regardless of antibody and PCR tests.
None of that really seems doable for all but the smallest countries. So the answer is herd immunity, either through contracting the virus, or via a vaccine.
The virus likely entered the US in early February, and in 2 months shut down the country. Literally one case will lead to another outbreak, we've already seen it happen.
One thing I didn't see mentioned was a recent article that caught my attention - apparently, tobacco may be used as means of production for a potential vaccine [0].
Given that the linked article was published on April 1, I initially thought it to be satire. Upon further consideration, though, it not only seems to be genuine but it makes sense: tobacco is likely one of the best understood plants from a genetic standpoint, with a long history of successful genetic modification using both traditional and modern approaches. It's certainly one of the best understood that also has large-scale production capabilities, and I would imagine that the tobacco industry has more incentive than most to seek the positive PR that this could bring.
Finally, setting aside the greater political context, it seems to me that the FDA under the Trump administration is more flexible and risk-tolerant than any point in my lifetime (and perhaps in living memory). There are certainly many challenges that will have to be overcome before we get to the point that we're able to widely roll out an effective vaccine, but I strongly suspect that this flexibility will result in a speed of development and approval that will surprise many of us. Of course, that speed will come with associated risks, but that's just the nature of things.
I would not be surprised to see widespread voluntary human testing of promising vaccine candidates in the next six months - perhaps even sooner if a promising candidate ends up being derived from the past few years' work in creating a vaccine for SARS-CoV-1.
0: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8175855/BAT-claims-...
I just want to offer a perspective of why this is dangerous. We are having some serious issues with flouroquinolone antibiotics. The side-effects of the medication are insane and under-reported. 9 years ago I was given the antibiotic for an infection, my body went into shock, I was released the next day with some odd neurological issues. None of it reported to the FDA, few months later I got tendon pain. I go to mayo clinic, they disagree the antibiotic caused it. Seen 30+ physicians in the span of 2 years, 2 agreed that it is possible. One of them said to wait it out, and refused to actually put it in my chart. The antibiotics carry a 'black label' and clearly state side effects may occur up to 1 year. I reported it to the FDA, then I found groups of people suffering from chronic fatigue, tendon raptures, weird neurological symptoms, some had diagnosis of 'fibromyalgia', some had chronic tendinitis, yet after reviewing their medical information they found they took a flouroquinolone antibiotic but nobody ever even suggested that it could be that.
This bring me to Tamiflu fiasco. Governments have spent billions of dollars to purchase Tamiflu to fight the flu. Later reports came out about issues with the studies, the maker picking positive studies and withholding neutral or negative information. It has not proven much better than the drugs we already use to treat the flu.
Fast tracking a medication can have terrible results, cost billions of dollars, and cripple hundreds of people. Doing any scientific research with panic in the back of your mind and high pressure from politicians and people is dangerous IMO. Especially, in a profit driven healthcare system.
All of this is true, and yet in our current situation, not fast tracking can have even worse results, cost trillions of dollars and kill millions of people.
The OPV is still used in the few countries where there is polio in the wild because it does have advantages over the IPV.
Here’s what the WHO site says:
“Since 2000, more than 10 billion doses of OPV have been administered to nearly 3 billion children worldwide. As a result, more than 13 million cases of polio have been prevented, and the disease has been reduced by more than 99%. During that time, 24 cVDPV outbreaks occurred in 21 countries, resulting in fewer than 760 VDPV cases.”
https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/what-is-vaccine-der...
From article: We calculated the number of paralyzed children each year which exceeded the expected numbers (assuming a NPAFP rate of 2/100,000) and the results are displayed in Table 2. A total of 640,000 children developed NPAFP in the years 2000–2017, suggesting that there were an additional 491,000 paralyzed children above our expected numbers for children with NPAFP.
Tamiflu seems to work but reduces symptoms by 1-2 days basically. It may also blunt the overall disease impact in your body as well.
There will probably be meta studies on whether fast tracking vs the regular process are equivalent, worse or better than each other.
That means that the entire population will trade a 0.3% to 4% risk of death (depends on what study you go with, lower numbers seem to be more likely) for the unknown risk of the vaccine. Thus people better be sure there is no severe side effect, even if rare.
From https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22511832 :
> "The story of dengue vaccine development is a cautionary tale. The first time you get dengue is usually not too bad, but it can be deadly if you get it again. Part of that is hypothesized to be driven by your own immune system, which, once immunized against one strain, produces antibodies against it in the next infection. However, if it's a slightly different strain of dengue the second time around, the antibodies meant to neutralize the disease are believed to make the disease more virulent instead (antibody-dependent enhancement). The immune system makes it worse. So when a dengue vaccine that didn't fully immunize against all strains was developed (not deliberately, people tried to immunize against all strains but this is a case where less efficacy than expected made things worse), it didn't make things better. It ended up priming people to get dengue."