> Around 200 million Americans will eventually get it, barring extraordinary events (like a vaccine arriving in 6 months). We cannot change this.

This doesn't seem right to me. With social distancing now, and testing and tracing once we have enough tests available, it seems to me that we should be able to keep the total number of infected people well below 200M, even if a vaccine takes the expected 18-24 months. If there's a solid argument that this is not the case, I'd like to hear it.