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Comment by twomoretime | Hacker News Reader

I don't know how anyone can trust the stock market right now. We're living in unprecedented uncertainty and on top of that, [literally] everything's closed and no one is buying anything, how can the economy possibly be growing like the market right now?

Hot air that will crash eventually.

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'analysts' say that a 'V-shaped' recovery is 'priced in'.

same 'analysts' mostly didn't notice a 11M city going into full lockdown.

Compared to the begging news wave that everyone was going to get infected and millions of death per state, an 11M city going into lockdown was definitely priced in

I don't disagree with you that the stock market is inflated, but remember that stocks should be valued by looking at the estimated sum of their future cash flows, not just their current cash flows. And this is relative to a riskless cash flow, like e.g. treasuries, which are controlled by interest rates.

How long are people expecting these companies to stay in business?

I think people are just buying in now while things are cheap and that's leading to a "recovery". Particularly given the longer the run the more risk averse cash you attract while prices are discounted. I bet there's another "crash" coming.

I'm not sure enough to short my money where my mouth is though, so to speak.

>Hot air that will crash eventually.

If the Fed stops buying junk bonds, yes. Until then it looks like the current market prices this bailout in.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL

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