Fear and beauty: two weeks living with Covid-19
joshuaweissburg.com
joshuaweissburg.com
There was a similar article in the NYT recently by a woman whose husband contracted COVID, had a relatively 'normal' pneumonia, but the article read like a war report out of an Ebola zone, allusions to Chernobyl the TV series, and COVID as a silent killer, and so on.
Now I don't want to diminish the personal experience of anyone, but I'm still surprised how many people in their 40s, 50s, 60s who ought to have had personal experience with tragedy and illness seem to have serious psychological trouble coping with the simple fact that we're for a while living in a pandemic and that life has become somewhat more dangerous.
It's not that I'm personally not worried at all, but there has to be some perspective. Life is more dangerous, but it's always somewhat dangerous. I wonder if it's, in particular, a phenomenon of affluent societies that haven't had to deal with serious stressors in a long time.
If you've ever been to Israel and lived there for a while and you go to a wedding and five minutes later there's a bomb alarm and there's pretty much rockets flying your way all the time, and you observe how resilient people are in coping with danger in their life, observing a lot of cultural response here worries me a lot.
On top of that, I can't spend time with them in the way that I would if I knew they were at risk. I have to stay away from them instead. It's the opposite of what I'd do if I knew a loved one was dying.
I think I'm dealing with it better than most because I'm an introvert. But I watch other people around me being affected by this, and I can understand it. It's a lot of new, different stress all at once.
Which is why I didn't say the infection fatality rate is staying the same.
>We are going to get hyperinflation now, US dollars will become worthless soon
Now that, is sensationalism.
[1] https://www.ft.com/content/16764a22-69ca-11ea-a3c9-1fe6fedcc...
Most likely it is, and I'd much rather live with occasionally being scared shitless by a global pandemic that might not be as bad as we feel it is than to deal with continual serious stressors day-in day-out.
> cultural response here worries me a lot
Why? I get that resilience is an important trait in a number of walks of life, but being concerned about a quite-deadly airborne respiratory virus that could be transferred by any Tom, Dick or Harry within close proximity seems like quite a valid thing to let get on top of you.
There's also the sense of unknown about this all.
Dying by cancer is, unless it's especially niche, quite well documented. And though you wont be around to rationalise it, being killed by a bomb is also a well understood process too.
Being killed by something that someone might just exhale into your general direction, that has no documented cure, isn't that well understood by most of the population any more (and damn well shouldn't have to be).
"It is what it is" is a great way to build mental resilience in trying times, but when you can't really identify what "it" actually "is", it becomes a lot harder.
Going from healthy to struggling to breath can be incredibly disconcerting — something a relatively young person may never experienced. When there’s no certainty of outcome, rational people may lose their normal comfort in statistics.
People are human, after all. Sure, we could all work on our resilience — but some compassion for people is warranted too.
In the case of the US, I think a lot of the insane response we've gotten is because of a combination of two things. First, we've not had real personal danger within our borders in most of our lifetimes. Second, media has learned that it's profitable to sell fear. The result is a bunch of manufactured fears, that aren't rationally actionable because they don't exist to begin with, and we become accustomed to reacting irrationally to fear and not looking too closely at our responses because ultimately there's no consequence to doing something ineffective in response to a danger that doesn't exist. But when a real danger like Covid 19 comes along, people don't have a rational set of coping mechanisms honed against previous real dangers, so they react to a real danger the same way they've reacted to a bunch of nonexistent, media-manufactured dangers in the past. If people post about how WiFi causes cancer[2] on Facebook and then do nothing to avoid WiFi, that's not great, but it isn't critical. But if people post about Covid19 danger on Facebook and then do nothing to avoid Covid19, at a societal level that causes the disease to spread and kill more people.
[1] I did live in Israel, although that's not what I'm talking about. I was 5-6 so I'm not sure how relevant that experience is.
[2] I'm not saying WiFi causes cancer.
The dull chest pain sticks around for a surprisingly long amount of time. I'm at day 25 now since my ER visit and just noticed that I haven't felt any of that dull pressure in at least 2 or 3 days at this point.
I'm not saying you don't have it, but I'm saying your mind is making it seem much more likely than it actually is.
of course, I'm not a doctor, and it could also be covid19.
I also had tightness in my upper chest. It lasted a week, from 10-18 March. During that time, it didn't get better or worse. But it lasted long enough that I started planning for a future A&E visit...
Then all of a sudden, thankfully, the chest tightness was gone. Occasional dry coughs continued for two more weeks.
I have had asthma and bronchitis my whole life. So I am always very aware of the state of my lungs. This tightness and dry cough is different from anything I ever had before.
I feel I arrived at a similar place to the author but on a much less romantic path. Not sure if I would have the same experience if the illness actually felt life threatening in an active way (e.g. breathing problems like the author experiences).
I remember looking up life expectancy and comforting myself that I had more than 75% or whatever left. When that wasn't enough, I'd think about how far away I was from graduation, and how, even after that, I'd have whatever-percent left.
I knew it didn't work that way, and it was irrational, but it helped me sleep, so I did it.
I'd absolutely panic if I had a fight with a family member at night and didn't have a chance to make up before bed -- what if I died before morning!
But, illnesses never scared me much.
Then one day.
One day, I was at the doctor's office, having a minor outpatient surgery performed. Very minor, local anesthetic only, procedure takes 10 minutes.
And the doc stuck me with the needle for the anesthetic, and it hurt just a little more than expected, and vasovagal reaction, and I fainted. Tunnel vision, echoing sound, sense of impending doom, blackness.
I was awake again before I finished falling back on the exam table, but I had a major panic attack. Never happened before in my life, but suddenly I was in an unimaginable blind panic, hyperventilating like mad, hands and feet starting to tingle and feel like they were vibrating.
Took two hours to calm down enough that they let me leave.
From that day on, anxiety attacks were a part of my life. For awhile, they were uncontrollable, and I started down the path that leads to agoraphobia. Before I locked myself in my dorm room forever, I got the anxiety just barely enough under control to keep living. I learned to talk about my anxiety very frankly with anyone who would stand still long enough to listen. This might be awkward oversharing, but it prevented me from getting stuck in the feedback loop that keeps people locked at home -- fear of the embarrassment of a panic attack being enough to start one.
I eventually learned to repeat my anxiety mantra aloud: "if every time I felt short of breath was really a heart attacks, I'd already have died long ago -- so these are not heart attacks"
Anyway, long story, but the result is that 20 years later, I rarely have attacks anymore, though I'm still a bit of an anxious soul. I don't often have that existential angst that used to lead me to count lifespans as a teen.
But I do get massively panicky when I'm sick, now.
I'm not sure what you said that compelled me to write this, but... it needed to get out.
Thanks for sharing.
I'd go to urgent care and they'd always be like "well you have a normal EKG but you should go to the hospital to be sure" and then the emergency room will talk to me, take my blood, monitor me for a few hours and take my blood again (sometimes it takes awhile for the markers of a heart attack to show up), and then tell me it was probably just heartburn.
I've gone five times in the last 2 years for this same song and dance (I skip urgent care now). I have had these feelings happen about 20 times besides that, so I'm not even going every single time, there's just some especially scary ones that make me go "It's probably nothing, but just in case!" Last time I was driving and could barely focus on the road, which was new. I was pretty close to an ER and even then I pulled off the side of the road and tried to calm down for 20 minutes before finally deciding to go in.
I'm only in my 30s, but I have seeing more and more stories of people dying from heart attacks that young (I know it's still rare, but it can happen), so that doesn't help. And if for some reason it ever does become a heart attack, I probably won't tell the difference and might not go in for it, and end up dead.
So yeah, anxiety over heart attacks can be no joke. I have real symptoms that manifest over it. Sorry you're going through this. I don't know if it'll ever go away for me, myself. Worried it might just be something I have to live with from now on.
But I'm fine normally except for the rare attacks. Even this pandemic isn't really bothering me too much, although I'm doing my best to avoid getting it, especially since I have other issues that could lead to a bad outcome (like the already mentioned asthma).
Real anxiety with potent physical symptoms is very much not "all in our heads"
Anxiety can be debilitating when it strikes. On top, it can create these crushing feedback loops.
I mentioned above the common-ish version in severe agoraphobia -- where fear of having an anxiety attack becomes powerful enough to cause them all by itself. That is the usual root cause of those stories you occasionally hear about people who lock themselves away for 10+ years, never going outside or being with anyone, except maybe one or two "safe people"
It sounds like you ended up like me with a version where the feedback loop is anxiety -> palpitations -> health-anxiety -> major panic -> health panic.
I have read hundreds of detailed descriptions of the symptoms of all manner of serious diseases over they years, looking for the clue that I might not be dying. Not because I "really thought" that I was, but because I was having self-perpetuating anxiety over it.
It's not the same as hypochondria, because I don't really rationally think that I have the condition in question, I just persistently fear that I do.
It's nice to talk to someone who understands. I'm glad you are coping OK for the moment. I am too.
We will make it, somehow.
Funny thing was, for the longest time I always thought "I'm pretty damn healthy, except for the allergies and asthma." Never really worried about my health much, except a little when I got a bad case of bronchitis.
Those thoughts and feelings suddenly stopped right around when I turned 30 and started getting combinations of minor symptoms just about everywhere on my body off and one all the time.
Probably also that's when I started knowing people that died really young and suddenly (or had close calls) from various things like sleep apnea, heart attacks, leg clots, aneurisms, etc. Seriously, video/board game industry has had quite a few of these young but sudden deaths lately, including some people I knew personally.
When you have symptoms that match those things, it's hard not to feel like it's better to be safe than sorry.
There are surgeries that can help with hernias (which can come and go like that).
Another thing, have you tried Nexium? For me that has been really useful to reduce symptoms (although I do still have some serious symptoms). But it sounds like you have a more significant hernia.
Also, I used to take Prilosec, but usually now I'll just give up all caffeine, soda, fatty foods, most tomatoes and citrus for two weeks, and that seems to put me back in a state where I can tolerate it again. Until I push the boundary again. I've heard some worrying things about long-term use of some heartburn medicine, so I try not to take it.
If I do have it, I think it's still pretty minor, at least compared to some pictures of hiatal and epigastric hernias I see online. It hasn't ever stuck out that far, and no doctor has ever noticed a problem.
Yet another reason to lose a bunch of weight. Throw it on the pile. Need to get my act together.
I also had a combination of a vasovagal episode and a panic attack, and it has taken years to mostly get over the resulting panic disorder. (It wasn’t helped by the fact that, during one trip to the ER for panic, a nurse performed an EKG incorrectly and I was misdiagnosed with a heart condition and admitted to the cardiac ward for the night. I still can’t believe that one.)
Being sick makes me panicky too. I have a host of coping techniques and it seems to get easier each year, but it still sucks. Having to mentally navigate the current pandemic seems to be adding some resilience, at least.
Anyway, thanks for sharing your story. It helped to read it. Best of luck.
It's hard sometimes, because even people who are sympathetic and want to help just sometimes really don't understand.
It's like "I know I'm not dying. That doesn't have any bearing on the fact that I'm currently having a massive panic over feeling like I'm dying!"
It's been 15 years since that first attack, now. I still have a few every year -- and things that used to scare me a bit sometimes now break me unexpectedly. I've just learned not to be too embarrassed by it, and I've learned how to explain it to whoever happens to be with me when I melt down, and I've learned (through experience) that those feelings are just my anxiety, and not impending doom.
Most people who know me well know about my anxiety, but if you let me casually, you wouldn't know.
Except when I get sick, I function quite well these days. When I had what I still think was the coronavirus back in February, I became a wreck again, (symptoms of shortness of breath are probably the top trigger, since they'll start the anxiety, which then makes the breathing worse, which is the anxiety spiral all over again) but I recovered after two weeks, and am actually holding up well in my locked-down world.
I was probably no fun to talk to during my illness, so I owe thanks to all my friends who listened to my panicked whining for two solid weeks
It's just an introspective version of instinctively smelling something after someone tells you it smells bad. Just... don't and you'll be better off.
For the record, I don't think this is an accurate representation of the situation.
The world has done a remarkable job of coming up with ventilators, masks and new practices on the fly in the face of overwhelming demand and labor shortages.
The ventilators aren't working as well as expected, so doctors are collaborating via internet in real time to come up with other options. New hypotheses concerning the pathology of the condition are already emerging.
Also, with internet access, you can google up medically recommended airway clearance techniques, recommended OTC drugs, etc. You can double check that it's a reputable source and an established practice for management of lung issues.
Covid19 is not the first time people have been faced with managing deadly lung issues. You can find good info on that very thing by searching for resources for cystic fibrosis. It's very deadly and people routinely manage it from home with medically approved and doctor recommended treatment modalities.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/if-you-are-sick/ca...
Ventolin is an inhaler. It opens up the airways during asthma attacks or similar. Pseudoephedrine is a decongestant.
The article under discussion indicates the author was given an inhaler and cough medicine at the ER and states they helped marginally.
Amphetamine salts are apparently used to treat ADHD. Some people use them illegally to concentrate for mid terms and finals at college or similar. I'm not personally aware of any valid reason to think they are appropriate for covid19.
Epinephrine is used to treat potentially deadly allergic reactions. You might know it better as "an epi pen."
It is contraindicated for a long list of things, including several heart issues that are potentially similar to the heart distress covid19 is causing in some patients. I'm guessing epinephrine would be a really bad idea to use with Covid19 without a really compelling reason, especially without medical supervision.
https://www.webmd.com/drugs/2/drug-146863/epinephrine-hcl-pf...
There is a study that shows in vitro, it helps fight the flu: https://covid19data.com/2020/03/06/meth-may-fight-flu-virus-...
There are also many reports from meth users that they almost never get sick.
It's just a personal anecodte, but whenever I get sick, I take amphetamine salts. It absolutely lets me power through the day and relieves symptoms (mostly stuffy nose), but I don't know if it's sustainable for something as long lasting as c19.
https://www.webmd.com/mental-health/addiction/news/20170210/...
I would guess this is probably not something you want to take if Coronavirus is already elevating your heart rate.
At the point when my fever started getting more severe is about the same time people were going absolutely crazy buying everything up - my girlfriend couldn't even find a thermometer or medicine to keep my fever down. Luckily I had a friend who overnighted a bunch of supplies to me.
It's really scary to realize there is a possibility that you could die, alone, in a hospital, unable to have family visit. The lowest my blood oxygen got was 89% -- I'm fortunate that if I had CVD19 I seem to have got the "light" version of it and never reached the respiratory distress that would put me in the hospital.
I strongly suspect that the reported infections in CO are off by a lot - it wouldn't surprise me to find out it is/was off by an order of magnitude.
Hopefully in the next few days/weeks we'll get very concrete data on exactly what percentage of people are/were asymptomatic cases, but my guess is it will not be some crazy high number because if so we'd have likely already figured that out by now.
If we go with the highest realistic-seeming estimates of contagiousness and (and thus lowest of deadliness), then we can say that what NY and Italy saw was something close to worst-case. One reasoned estimate had 20% of Italians -- and almost 40% of Northern Italians -- infected in a six-week period.
If that estimate is correct, then even if Italy completely unlocked tomorrow, and held mass hug-ins and cough-ins at every gathering place, it still would probably only get back to as bad as it was 3 weeks ago, and probably only stay there for a month or so.
That would be incredibly tragic, but not world endingly so.
On the other hand, if you take the maximal estimate the other way, and say that Italy and NY at the peak were detecting 1/3-1/2 of their cases (it kinda can't be more than that), then there is the potential for outbreaks 5x as bad and 10x as long unless they stay socially distant until there is a vaccine in widepsread use -- and even so, hundreds of thousands more will inevitably die along the way.
Myself, I think the evidence points to higher contagiousness than this, but the difference does actually matter, even if that still outs us beyond the "threshold of ignorability"
That hasn't happened in Sweden.
The problem is that when American employers grant to no sick leave to employees and are brutally against ever doing so, applying the flexible Swedish model to the US would be extremely hard. The model involves mutual trust and responsibility between the state, employers and employees and there's very little trust there in most other countries.
[1] https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-sweden-no-lockdo...
[2] https://www.statista.com/statistics/545241/sweden-enterprise...
There is no known method of stopping the spread of this disease. Even if you flatten the curve, without a vaccine, the area under the curve remains the same.
Fwiw, I'm also in the camp that cases are an order of magnitude off and there is significantly more immunity in the population than we think. However that's a hunch and with out widespread antibody testing it would be irresponsible for anyone to act on such a hunch.
The world is full of factories producing a wide variety of things, including biological material. These factories can certainly gear up given time.
What makes you certain that it is possible to manufacture billions of tests?
Wow, it is gratifying to see someone able to say this. Absolutely, with some luck there are a bunch of limiting factors (both that there's are harmless infections, that ) that are going to keep the epidemic from reaching the potential it seems to have "on paper". But these are unknown, these are the major unknowns and acting like we can just guestimate them and be safe is supremely irresponsible since if get it wrong, an order of magnitude more people die. A flu season? Ten flu season? A hundred flu season? Do you really want to roll those dice? To a fair extent, we already are but it's not comforting.
Not necessarily. The higher the social distancing at the peak, the lower the percentage of infection needed for herd immunity to kick in. Ergo, in effect, lower number of cases. If you drop your R0 by half, your her immunity percentage necessary halves as well!
Source: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity
Look under the Mechanics section.
Compare to Denmark (52 deaths per 1m) or Norway (25 deaths per 1M) and Sweden's tactics don't seem to be working that well.
>and Sweden's tactics don't seem to be working that well.
Their healthcare isn't being overwhelmed and that is the only thing that matters in any country at this moment.
Instead it saturates in such ugly ways because it's so contagious (as the comment below this mentions). Thus, highly contagious + entirely virgin population of susceptible people (of all types: asymptomatic, lightly symptomatic, moderately, severely, mortally) will inevitably result in very high infection rates and thus an initial saturation that's also high even if hospital-worthy cases are a small percentage of total known and unknown cases.
This saturation may or may not be capable of getting worse than what we've seen so far in NYC, Northern Italy, Spain and Iran to a lesser extent, but though we don't yet know this for sure, if it is the case, the virus being allowed to spread far and fast will likely cause these bad but possibly tolerable saturations to happen quickly only once, and then simply cease as enough people become immune or at least resistant, and healthcare systems steadily adapt.. So far, it seems that Italy and Spain might actually be close to as bad as it gets even with widespread infection of the population, since credible estimates are presupposing at least 2 million cases in total in Italy at this point, for example. Even in New York there are signs of slowdown already. Again, if that is in fact the worst case scenario in any given region, its cost, as tragic as it is, might be worth weighing against the possibly more catastrophic cost of prolonged quarantine and its resulting economic and social consequences.
We could possibly be delaying an inevitable event with only briefly heavy localized consequences and moderate general clinical consequences by artificially creating a much worse long term problem that kills too, albeit more indirectly and among a wider demographic through missed clinical care appointments of other kinds, depressive suicides, economic ruin, substance abuse and other general population harm factors we can only start guessing at so far.
This holds for the calculus of personal risk ("I'm sick, will I die?"), but not public risk nor policymaking.
Whatever the "true" severity of this disease is, it's known, experimentally, to be high enough to overwhelm regional hospital capacity. That means that it has to be controlled, because if it isn't then a lot of people will be sick without care, and thus a lot more people will die.
It's true that we don't know the "pessimal peak" of case load. Maybe we'd be looking at a doomsday scenario of only 4M people dead globally, and not the 40M the measured fatality rate would indicate. But... who cares? We won't get that high, because we had to lock down even for the "good news" 4M number.
My thought is that the mortality rate is rather low, especially for those that are healthy, but there's a ton of people that have it. More than 1% of New York State is now infected with Coronavirus. That's crazy.
https://www.sanmiguelcountyco.gov/590/Coronavirus
(the blood test should find people that have recovered from the infection)
Is this something that people with rescue inhalers also typically have?
It's only about $50 and batteries last long, so I'd totally recommend it if you have breathing ailments. Maybe even otherwise.
> Is this something that people with rescue inhalers also typically have?
I'm not sure. I usually get a rescue inhaler prescribed roughly once a year to help get over a cold. I have light asthma and bad allergies. The breathing here in Denver is definitely more challenging in general as well.
As my symptoms got better it gradually improved and the last time I did a reading it was at 99%, which I think is where I normally am (it's not something I measured before this though).
I only suggest that it was the "light" version because it seems like the advanced cases develop into pneumonia and I definitely didn't have pneumonia. The breathing problems felt no worse than a bad cold to me.
I have asthma and bad allergies, so it could just be that I'm somewhat used to sub-par breathing in general. I also know of some breathing exercises that always seem to help.
According to interviews with doctors, corona patients experience lower than normal oxygen levels without that being a problem, until it gets very low.
A scan of recent news seems to indicate Spain doesn't have anything like a testing program in place.
A look at Italy, Spain, France and Germany seems to indicate the epidemic has plateaued, not stopped and it's plateaued at a fairly high level.
I was at the grocery store today. Maybe 1 in 10 people had some form of mask. Tomorrow I go to work, where we aren't using masks either. We never did. I have some homemade masks but have never felt the need. There is virus in our area but it just isn't spreading at nearly the predicted rate given our relaxed "lockdown".
https://www.ksbw.com/article/new-study-investigates-californ...
I’m in SF but having a hard deciphering the plausibility vs the timing and effectiveness of sheltering-in-place vs it just being a rationalization.
Anything similar stories out there for CO?
Professor Victor Davis Hanson is one of America's smartest and most lateral thinkers. If he proposes a theory, it's a good idea to at least think about.
Because of how highly contagious corona virus is, I agree with him. It also matches the Daily Mail article.
I lean towards lockdown as being a rationalization now that we know ventilators don't work with 66% to 90% mortality, and that we (the US) don't have the testing and tracing capabilities to stop a highly contagious disease.
Most people can't separate their personal fear of death with public policy. This seems to go all the way up our political structure.
1. California has ~40 million people
2. Herd immunity would start at what ~30 million cases?
3. Elsewhere in the world, it seems that there is a ~1% infection fatality rate
So how did California get herd immunity without ~300,000 people who died of pneumonia from an unknown cause piling up in the corridors in a couple of months? I read elsewhere that fatality rate of people on ventilators is about 50%. Assuming that the Californian cohort were treated properly means there would have been ~600,000 people in critical condition and only half of them died. There will be more who went to hospital but weren't considered critical enough for ventilation. Its a rough guestimate but lets say twice as many "non-critical but hospitalized" as "hospitalized and critical" so there were ~1 million people queuing in the hospitals. These figures are pulled out of the air and can be adjusted, but it doesn't really help with the sheer numbers, for example there are ~7000 ICU beds in California, so the 300,000 who might have got better with care wouldn't have had access to it.
It seems obvious that to get to the immunity, you have to go through the eye of a needle.. The basic premise of theories like this seems to be that the fatality rate may be actually negligible and therefore that the whole issue has been overblown. But I have seen video from Wuhan and from Italy and New York that shows images of body bags piled in the corridors. That is not normal and it would surely have been remarked on in California or <whatever area> at the time. Don't forget that Wuhan had ~3000 deaths. Furthermore, California is not an island and for it to have been widespread there that long ago means it would have had to be widespread across the whole USA if not the entire world.
It is tempting I think to believe that <yourself> cannot be affected by <external threat> and obviously, extrapolating from the fact that it never happened before, <yourself> would be entirely correct. Unfortunately history is littered with people who chose to just live their lives like that until the <external threat> came along and wiped them out without blinking. All of us here are the descendants of the lucky ones!
So it's really unlikely large amount of the population anywhere has already had the coronavirus and might be immune without anyone noticing (without you know, all the totally overloaded hospitals and lots of people suddenly dying).
The uncertainty has been eased by a little gizmo to measure the oxygen saturation in blood, which I got on amazon for £75 as soon as it was obvious that I could not breath well. I am probably fine as long as the saturation is > 92% or so.
Of course I have doubts about the reliability of a medical device off amazon, but it seems well done and, interestingly, it gives my mind a piece of seemingly objective truth to latch on.
[Edit - saturation level that will make me go to the hospital]
"Conclusion: Among outpatients with pneumonia, oxygen saturations <90% were associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Our results indicate a hospital admission threshold of <92% would be safer and clinically better justified."
Has anyone calculated what are the probabilities of infection in an area with an active infection cluster while practicing social-distancing and other hygiene measures?
In reality, the only way to be safe is to always wash all your clothing every time you go out, but with a dog, I find that pretty hard.
Quarantining the exposed clothes is a better method IMHO, just setup a FIFO of quarantine bins. Add sunlight if possible. I've been using 2-3 days personally, depending on what it is.
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0885_article
Like you say, it's a game of percentages. The only way to completely eliminate the possibility of infection to yourself personally is to stay inside and live off whatever you've managed to stock up on for supplies. Not exactly practical and likely not sustainable for long.
Imagine being able to "see" the simulated virus in the air and on surfaces. See it spread due to airflow and gravity, see it diminish over time due to sunlight, surface cleaning, etc.
I also have decades of muscle memory with using disposable gloves in a lab context, but that's not so useful when you don't have 100 gloves per day to burn through. But even so, I'm always conscious of what I've touched when, and with what.
Like... with your hand? Not in a glove that you throw out immediately? I just can't fathom touching a door handle.
I saw someone just open a door at a public place the other day and it was utterly baffling to see.
>A had taken a few hikes, grocery store and takeout runs.
It is the worst possible place you could go. People touching everything, air not circulating well.
I guess you can wear gloves? But then you still have to wipe everything you bought down when you get home.
Is there not a middle ground of food delivery? Nonperishable foods can sit out for several days before use, significantly reducing the risk.
Likewise with wiping everything down when you get home. Supposedly soap is effective - it's not difficult to soak everything in soapy water. You can't completely eliminate all risk but you can certainly mitigate it.
We aren't worried about how you or I really get it, it doesn't matter if it actually was carried by a supernatural deity following certain people around or if someone has a death note that uses 5g radio waves to target individuals in the phone book. We only know that crowds and ignoring hygeine carry it faster and we just need time to treat it.
If you are personally in an at-risk group and are avoiding it like the plague that it is, none of the policies have real answers you. We are operating on probabilities, not absolutes.
That said, more than 98% of corona cases involve fever[2] so this might have been something else.
[1] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-incuba...
[2] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-sympto...
https://www.mcknights.com/news/clinical-news/new-data-leads-...
https://patch.com/california/losgatos/bay-area-s-dr-fauci-ex...
So given that, I'd say the changes are nearly 0%.
To actually keep infections to a minimum, we need to actually quarantine, but (again, my understanding) that will have too many other negative effects, and the economic hardships could actually kill more people than the disease would have.
A Washington state choir decided to go ahead with their practice on March 6th. There were no handshakes or hugs, everyone was given hand sanitizer on the way in. 45 members contracted COVID-19, 2 died. https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-03-29/corona...
#2: This video was posted on /r/Coronavirus/ and was pretty interesting. It's got some visualizations of how micro droplets remain suspended in air: https://vimeo.com/402577241
But then a few weeks ago we all started to sneeze, cough, and run low grade fevers. Wife lost her sense of smell. And then a bunch of symptoms between us that I later learned are all coronavirus symptoms.
The dominant things for me was the shortness of breath, and the extreme fatigue. Like, feeling like you’ll just go “goodnight!” and collapse on the kitchen floor fatigue.
The breathing was the most disconcerting. I’d wake up in the morning thinking I was getting better, but by the afternoon I’d feel like someone was sitting on my chest. The cough never really got crazy bad for me. Where a panic attack might feel like you can’t catch your breath, this felt more like trying to breath under a swimming pool.
Caring for 3 young kids with a sick spouse has been... a test, lol. But fortunately we’re all young and healthy and things are returning to normal. As slowly as it came on. Luckily I stocked up on things just in case, but at the height of being sick it was impossible to get any grocery delivery windows. They did finally come through about a month into this process, so, feeling grateful all around.
I had what would be called a “mild” case, but it definitely sucked. Looking forward to antibody testing so we can know fo sure it’s what we had, but based on all of the symptoms, the long incubation time, etc, it seems very likely.
I know this is not the main topic of this article, but I’ll steal this sentence to convey the importance of taking precautions against COVID-19 to people who feel that it’s statistically irrelevant.
I'm using that as a bit of a self-reminder. If I can win that, then I can "win" (i.e. die) from Covid-19.
Assuming a 10 mile journey, the probability of death is 1.25E-7.
CFR for 20-49 age group is 0.3% (probability 3E-3)
So either my math is wrong or you are wrong by only 4 orders of magnitude.
That said, parent comment's math is still way off (see my sibling comment).
Apologies if this was intended to be hyperbole, but it is not true according to our current knowledge. Estimated fatality rate for adults 20-30 is 0.03%, 30-40 is 0.08%, and 40-50 and 0.16% [1]
The probability of dying from one single vehicle ride to the hospital is several orders of magnitude less than 0.1% or even 0.01%. There are 1.25 deaths per 100 million vehicle miles driven in the USA [2]. Even if the hospital is 100 miles away, your odds of dying on the way there are 0.000125%.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019#Progn...
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transportation_safety_in_the_U...
Rough average COVID deaths per 100k infected under 50 (using average death rate from categories 0-50): 36
Deaths per 100k by car crashes in a year in the US: 11.2
Except, you know, about 1 in 30 that contracted it in Northern Italian cities with heavy spread and not enough ICUs, and 1 in 10 or so over 70 or with a prior condition...
I don't want to play the game even with fifty.
Not knowing if you properly decontaminated that last batch of groceries is nerve wracking.
People are just way too sure it was that one virus. There are other viruses that can cause similar symptoms.
A little more useful than "it'll be fine"? eh?
I honestly hate the empty empathy from people with no say in the matter. Its cultural and I think it develops into a mental issue of denial. Saying "you'll die if you don't breathe, I don't want that" is good enough, for me. People of some cultures would say that. Are we really worried about the patient losing the will to live without other people's hopium? Is that really a co-morbidity?
Sorry if I sound salty, I just finished doing a bunch of interviews where other people told me it'll be fine and it wasn't and I already knew how random it is. These are binary events.
It's actually really hard to express sympathy usefully. I always feel like a robot when trying.
Yet once you've lived it, empathy is somehow natural
There is survivorship bias in the media reports. Mild cases don't get reported because it's bland, common, and everyday. The ones that cause death DO get reported because it's clickbait basically. This biases the population to overestimate the risk from this.
I can accept the randomness of not being rewarded for doing the "right thing"
It's easy to say, "It's a panic attack". It does not appear to be life threatening. But boy does it feel life threatening. The doctors all say, "We can't find anything wrong with you" (apart from you heart racing randomly, your blood pressure spiking to dangerous levels, heart paplitations and various other problems). But what if they missed something? It's pretty hard to gamble your life on this stuff. I was absolutely fine until one day I wasn't. Something must have changed.
One of the problems with getting symptoms and not being able to diagnose the illness exactly is that you will never know. Pain in your chest. Difficulty breathing. Complete lethargy. It could be corona virus. It could be a panic attack brought on by worrying about the corona virus. You will never know unless you are tested (and even then it might not be right).
My experience has been that sometimes I take comfort in imagining that I have some strange disease that nobody knows about. It certainly feels better to me than, "My nervous system is making me ill through stress that I don't know how to relieve". But, I've also found that if I believe I'm ill, then the symptoms feel worse as well, even though I get some psychological relief from the stress of experiencing the symptoms.
The best way that I've come to deal with the problem is simply to believe that I will feel well again soon. I may feel bad now, but soon I will feel better. I may have an illness. I may not have an illness. It may be life threatening. It may not. Even if it is life threatening, there is nothing more I can do. So it is best to believe that I will feel better soon. This has helped me immeasurably, even though it is quite difficult to do.
I recently (and as a last resort) had a sleep test. I averaged 52 apnic arousals per hour. In other words, at most I was sleeping for a minute or so at a time. They gave me a cpap machine and while I would be lying if I said all my symptoms are magically going away immediately, I do feel a lot better now that I've started to get used to the machine.
But the reality is that your belief is powerful medicine in an of itself. Whether your are ill or not. Whether you have corona virus, or the flu, or whether you are just very tired and stressed: believing that you will feel better soon will help enourmously in my experience.
...but particularly because you mention that this is a recent issue and not a lifelong deal, have you had a doctor rule out a pheochromocytoma? It's really unlikely since they're rare, (~1000 cases per year in the US) but they can cause the symptoms you are describing and it would tend to manifest in the age range of young adult to middle aged adult. And the labs needed to diagnose it aren't super routine.
But they way you described being totally fine until one day you weren't makes me have a stronger index of suspicion for a non-psychological cause.
This is super speculative, but there's a tiny chance it could help you since the treatment (surgery) is usually pretty definitive.
Patients with a pheochromocytoma are notorious for presenting with secondary conditions that get misdiagnosed as the primary issue and the tumor isn't discovered until death. They're often called referred to as one of the "great mimics" of medicine. Note it on the list here: (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_great_imitator)
My wife is a doctor and she caught it at work. She and 7 other doctors (8 in total) all fell ill in the same week. This was about 3 weeks ago.
My wife had a bit of fever for the first 2-3 days (~38C), and she mostly suffered from a bad headache for about a week, and a cough (mild) for about two weeks and a sore throat (mild) for the first few days. After a few days she also lost her taste and smell of food which all came back on day 12 roughly. She is also in her super early 30s and never had shortness of breath or other issues with the lungs. After 7 days she even returned to work as her body has fought off the virus by then (even though some symptoms might remain like a cough).
I contracted the virus from her obvioulsy whilst she was quarantined at home for 7 days. After 5 days I also started to get my first symptoms. It started with a lot of fatigue, a sore throat and really high fever. During the first two days I had >39C fever, lots of shivers, cold sweats, and just feeling terribly tired.
Whilst that sounds terrible it was not anything different from what I experienced from previous flus. When my fever soared I felt totally shit, but as soon as the paracetamol kicked in and my fever declined I was feeling better and was even able to do minor tasks at home.
My sore throat lasted for about a week, it first got worse and then disappeared. I also developed an annoying dry cough after 5 days which stuck with me for about a week. Today I have a mini cough left a bit, but that is normal again, just like with a normal cold a cough can stick with someone for weeks after being completely fine again.
My fever disappread after the first 2 days. I also had terrible headaches, which were the worst and lost my smell and taste, but no shortness of breath. I was actually documenting all my symptoms every day and I'm thinking of uploading it to YouTube.
Overall I have to say if there was no stigma with COVID-19 I would have not even lost a second of a thought thinking that I was seriously ill. It was honestly a really mild flu after all. The actual flu which I had earlier this year was much worse if I'm honest. Not even two weeks after I got my first symptom I was working out in my garden and doing some mild cardio exercises again. Normally when I get a cold it affects my sinuses which means that I can't do cardio for at least two full weeks as I always struggle to breath through my nose for quite some time, but COVID-19 doesn't normally give you a runny nose and it didn't give me one indeed which means that in my case COVID-19 was even much nicer to get than a regular cold.
There's a lot of bad stigma and panic around COVID-19, but after all it's just a new repiratory coronavirus, just like colds and the flu your body should be able to fight if off normally without any real issues, unless you already have some serious problems.
It's important to remember that COVID-19 is not a lottery or survival by luck. It is a mild illness if you are a healthy and relatively young human being. It does discriminate against fragile, old and people with a pre-existing conditions. If this wasn't true then we would see a much more evenly spread death rate, but we don't because to most people who are fine this is barely an illness.
There's only two types of people who die from it:
- People with a pre-existing health condition
- People with a pre-existing health condition who don't know about it yet because no doctor has diagnosed it yet
> - People with a pre-existing health condition
> - People with a pre-existing health condition who don't know about it yet because no doctor has diagnosed it yet
This is the kind of shit I expect from Facebook comments, I'm frankly flabbergasted to see someone making that kind of stupid assertion here.
Like it or not, but I'm not going to sugar coat the reality of the situation because I might hurt some obese person's feelings.
Not really true.
Here's data from the UK ICUs. Page 15 shows BMI.
Here are the numbers of people by BMI. First column is BMI, second column is the percentage of people in ICU.
BMI COVID-19
<18.5 0.64
18.5 to <25 25.79
25 to <30 35.04
30 to <40 31.33
40+ 7.20
And here's the numbers of people dying or being discharged from critical care alive. BMI
<25 54% discharged alive
46% dead
25-<30 50% discharged alive
49% dead
30-<40 46% discharged alive
54% dead
40+ 43% discharged alive
56% dead
Risk increases with BMI, but it's simply wrong to say that the only people dying are obese.https://www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Download/c31...
> Here's data from the UK ICUs. Page 15 shows BMI.
> Here are the numbers of people by BMI. First column is BMI, second column is the percentage of people in ICU.
BMI COVID-19
<18.5 0.64
18.5 to <25 25.79
25 to <30 35.04
30 to <40 31.33
40+ 7.20
Your data kind of proves the point which the OG has made that 70% of patients are overweight though.A BMI > 25 is overweight. When I look at the table which you have posten then I calculate that ~73% of patients in ICU in the UK are overweight indeed then.
There is 35.04% of patients with a BMI > 25, another 31.33% of patients with a BMI > 30 and 7.2% of patients with a BMI of > 40.
Either I don't understand the data which you have posted or you didnt?
To me that doesn't just mean "overweight", it means "obese".
29% of adults in the UK are obese (BMI > 30) and another 36% are overweight (25 < BMI < 30).[1] So the pattern you see above is really just "people hospitalized for COVID-19 have roughly the same distribution of weights as the general population". There's a little bit of correlation with the obese being a little more likely to be hospitalized, but I'm not sure that pattern holds up if you correct for age. In any case, it's not nearly that exciting or strong of a correlation, to let you guess who is going to die.
[1] https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn03...
Like with everything in life there are some outliers who just happen to have really really bad luck, but you can't look at those and be afraid. It's like with cancer, most people who get cancer are old because for obvious genetic reasons, but there are some poor children who also develop cancer, but no child should live in fear thinking that one day they could wake up with a bad bowl cancer. It's irrational.
> - People with a pre-existing health condition
> - People with a pre-existing health condition who don't know about it yet because no doctor has diagnosed it yet
This is untrue. From the UK ICU data:
First column is discharged from critical care alive numbers (percentage), second column is died number (percentages).
Assistance required with daily activities
No 715 (50.5) 700 (49.5)
Yes 66 (37.3) 111 (62.7)
Any very severe comorbidities
No 744 (49.8) 749 (50.2)
Yes 48 (38.1) 78 (61.9)Healthcare systems of many countries are cornered by these assumptions: 1) light ozone generators cannot do a thing because they produce tiny concentrations of gas 2) the ozone is toxic.
While both of those statements are somewhat true, here is the thing.
The dangerous side of Covid-19 is its ability to target lungs in a fraction of patients. While this is a dangerous situation, it also makes it potentially susceptible to inhale treatments.
Now back to ozone. It is basically a recombined atoms of oxygen, but instead of ubiquitous O2, ozone is O3. As you might expect, it has higher oxidizing ability. Human can safely breathe ozone as long as its concentration goes below 0.2 mg/m3.
Ozone is not only a breathable gas. It also has an ability to disinfect. For example, it deactivates the viruses by over-oxidizing its surfaces.
Regarding the concentrations. It was shown that to kill 90% of SARS-CoV you would need an exposure of 20-112 mg / m3 during one minute. Which sounds like a lot but bare with me.
A disinfection with ozone has an accumulative effect, pretty much like with UV or radiation. For instance, a home ozonator (ozone generator) typically produces a concentration of 0.02 mg/m3. It would not kill the virus in a minute. But it will start to do so in 17 hours of exposure (20 mg/m3 / 0.02 mg/m3 / 60 min/hour = 16.6 hours).
Ozone can be generated in several ways. One of those is by exposing the air to UV-C. This is a preferable method for virus situation, because not only the desired gas is generated, but also because UV-C light has an ability to disinfect the air and surfaces by itself. A win-win.
Please note that UV-C may be critically dangerous to skin and eyes. To overcome that problem, UV-C lamp should be placed in a black or UV insulating box, where only a small laminar flow of air produced by the fan is exposed to UV-C. The suggested power of such a lamp would be something < 10W where 3W looks like a sweet spot for a 18 m2 room.
Now to effects: tiny fractions of ozone would cause a small sedative effect. If the breath is difficult then you may find a tiny amount of O3 more supportive comparing to conventional air mixture which is already a big bonus.
In 17 hours or so of exposure, you are going to feel better, as the consumed concentration is already promises to deactivate a substantial amount of exposed virus material (like 90%).
The good things do not end here, as deactivation rate is exponential and in 34 hours you are going to get 99% of exposed virus material deactivated.
Now to the not so good things: ozone is slightly toxic and you would not be able to use it for too long. 3 days of presumably safe concentration is already close to a stretch. It not only damages viruses and bacteria, it also over-oxidizes human cells which leads to their eventual damage. It is usually felt like a soar throat.
The important points to consider when trying to implement the experiment like this: 1) safe O3 concentration 2) no direct human exposure to UV-C 3) room should be on a smaller side, as it is easier to control (8-20 m2 is a sweet spot) 4) the room should be mostly closed, do not ventilate the room more often than once or twice per 24 hours for short periods of time like 5-10 minutes; note, that you still need an air to breathe, so a "mostly closed room" would not mean a "scientifically firmly closed room".
Did I try this extreme idea myself before publicly suggesting it? Yes, I did. Though for more conventional viruses like seasonal flu. I was never officially diagnosed with Covid-19, but I'm pretty confident I went through it in the middle of February when nobody had a test yet.
The idea may sound controversial to the most of population nowadays. But it surely is effective on viruses as I've experimented with it for 7 years.
I am putting this publicly to spark the minds of researches, including professionals. This is a low hanging fruit so I'm surprised to admit that nobody had tried it before in scientifically controlled environment, with control groups and stuff.
DISCLAIMER: If you do this you do it on your own risk. The large dozes of ozone and UV can be extremely dangerous and may lead to fatal consequences or even death. This is not a scientifically proven treatment of Covid-19.
I actually wonder if some controlled exposure might be a good thing, I can get it and (statistically) recover from it at a place away from my family, and then come back and be the one that does everything for everybody.
https://health.usnews.com/conditions/articles/if-i-get-coron...
> Not every virus functions the same way, though, and extensive research into whether the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19 generates enough antibodies to impart a durable immune response is unclear. But there’s plenty of reason to hope that a vaccine can be developed, and, in fact, clinical trials have already started.
> For one, it appears that some people who get COVID-19 may not develop antibodies to the virus. Additionally, there are still many other uncertainties related to the body's immune response to this particular pathogen.
And long term:
> For example, is this virus going to behave more like the flu, which changes each year and thus requires a different vaccine formulation each year? Or is it going to be more like tetanus, which is a more stable virus. The tetanus vaccine typically covers you for about 10 years at a stretch.
Even if you have antibodies it's not going to be normal a life. There will still be social distancing expected and enforced, capacity limits at stores, many businesses closed, and you still need to exercise caution to not spread it unnecessarily just like everyone else.
Sure, if your friends and family all have antibodies.
Otherwise you have to fear for their safety. You could just be running around spreading it to all your loved ones.
Having antibodies doesn't suddenly turn you and your appendages into magical virus-free objects.
https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/self-isol...
NHS says If you have symptoms the NHS tells you to self isolate for 7 days. If you still have symptoms you need to self isolate until those symptoms go.
NHS says If you live with someone who has symptoms you need to self isolate for 14 days from the day their symptoms started.
I think this is one of the reasons we have such high rates of infection in the UK.
e.g. CDC is the greater of 7 days since symptoms start or 72 hours after symptoms end: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/disposition-in...
My local (Canada) guidance is greater of 10 days or end of symptoms: https://www.alberta.ca/isolation.aspx