This is the key takeaway from this article. This will spell doom for the US consumer's purchasing power, it makes sense to own foreign currencies, gold, and foreign stocks. Getting out of dollar denominated assets before the dollar crashes is key.
This is the key takeaway from this article. This will spell doom for the US consumer's purchasing power, it makes sense to own foreign currencies, gold, and foreign stocks. Getting out of dollar denominated assets before the dollar crashes is key.
Since other nations are simultaneously loosening in a competitive devaluation, buying foreign currencies and equities won't necessarily protect you.
I've yet to see a step by step explanation of how the dollar is supposed to crash. While there are many hyperbolic and hand-wavy theories getting passed around, none that I've seen acknowledge the role of other nations or of second-order effects.
I agree it's prudent to own some gold and Bitcoin in case the bottom falls out, but the probability of hyperinflation seems pretty low to me even if the Federal Reserve prints a few trillion dollars during a crisis.
Heck, they’re already doing that now with COVID-19. Then there’s no need for the dollar as a reserve currency. Not saying this will happen but it is a possibility. The real test is if Trump will impose tariffs on foreign oil. Other countries may retaliate on other goods and it quickly spirals from free trade to autarky.
One of the reasons for the monetary stimulus is that in a crisis, everyone wants dollars. Which is why the dollar continues to strengthen despite all of those efforts. Additionally, significant portions of the stimulus (repo, dollar swap lines, etc.) are unwound naturally and automatically as the crisis abates. So it's not like the money sticks around to weaken the currency.
Also, increasing bank reserves from monetary policy doesn't tend to increase lending one-for-one as banks have not been reserve constrained in a long time. Lending is dominated by capital requirements and risk tolerance. So asset purchases lead to increased reserve levels, which strengthens financial conditions and increases lending (and thus Main Street consumption and investment) somewhat, but it's not like $2 trillion of monetary stimulus => $2 trillion of ketchup bought off the shelf.