Our consumer economy just shrank by 30% or more. We've used up all our credit. We were spending beyond our means. And now our consumption will shrink. What's this do to king dollar?
It's too early to say; what matters more is what a recovery, if any, looks like. The US has a history of enduring greater short-term pain but bouncing back faster.
It's very early days, and this is a recession unlike any other, so it's hard to say what will happen, because this type of recession has not occurred in modern history.
If you are lucky the US applies economic pressure. If you are disliked enough, things have a tendency to get downright kinetic.
(1) or die trying...
Every time we consume we're exporting those little green pieces of paper, you know?
Shrinking consumption actually props up the dollar, because we're giving out less, and the rest of the world, with dollar denominated debt and liabilities, has bills to pay.
China was in recession/depression before shutting down their entire economy for almost 2 months and have barely recovered. They suffered a supply shock. And now because the entire worlds demand has declined, China is now suffering from demand shock. And foreign manufacturers are now FLEEING which adds to massive loss of permanent jobs. That’s on top of a debt overload and they don’t control the worlds main currency
Japan and Germany were close to recession before the virus hit. Plus they are mainly exporters. Plus automobile is their big export...which now the demand has collapsed around the world.
US comparatively is safer.