The reason why Trump went from "its a democratic hoax" to "100k-200k dead" was literally the Overton Window. Pick the biggest, most unlikely number, get everyone used to that, and deploy the puffery when it doesn't happen. Markets are responding to that. It was a pretty good move because that argument co-opted the opposition who was claiming a million or more would die. That was BS, and the administration's position calls them on it and puts them in a position of declaring a win because the unreasonable number is... unreasonable. But as for the market? This is all a game.

EDIT: My post will probably age-like-milk when we're still in lockdown in November with 300k dead and we all have long hair and are wiping our butts with the lawn like sick dogs.