Hacker News Reader

Comment by ProAm | Hacker News Reader

> But honestly, you shouldn't run a tech company, if you cannot burn through a quarter.

Everyone knows this pandemic is going to last WAY longer than a quarter. Probably a year+

> Everyone knows this pandemic is going to last WAY longer than a quarter. Probably a year+

It's not gonna last a year+ lol. Lately it seems that people of hackernews and r/coronavirus have an extreme overlap. Extremism is bad no matter which end you stick to.

How is it going to go away sooner?

> It's not gonna last a year+

Pandemic, probably not. Difficult (if not quite depressed) economy, probably.

The world will essentially be on lockdown until there is a vaccine. Not because its so deadly, its really not, but because its SO contagious, especially per-symptomatic. It only takes one or two people to cause another massive flare up, thats why it will be more than a year. Even if a vaccine is found tomorrow, we still need BILLIONS of doses, and thats after approval. This is going to be a long economic disaster. We havent even gotten to significant layoffs yet I feel, the next two months will get real bad across all industry.

It almost seems comical that the market has rallied heavily in the last two days. It's not to the levels of Feb 19th, but surely more value should be knocked off than where it currently sits.

The market has nothing to do with revenue or people keeping jobs though. Wait until we start seeing quarterly reports from companies. wait until companies that were setup to have a few months of bad sales start running low on reserves.

And yet you are projecting your own extremism as fact. Just admit that you have no idea when this will go away either.

Casually throwing around the term "lol" in an overly optimistic baseless projection of how long this pandemic is going to last IS extremism.

Are you literally "laughing out loud" about how quickly and painlessly you predict this is all going to be over? Or are you laughing at people who are taking it more seriously than you do? Really, what's so funny?

If you're going to be extreme, then at least be extremely CAREFUL instead of extremely FLIPPANT.

I don't see how the consequences of the pandemic aren't going to last a year, possibly much longer.

A significant percentage of people on this site have never seen a recession in their entire working lives. In their lived experience, the DJIA only goes up, and every single dip is a buying opportunity that reaches ATHs within a week or two. Hopping overpaid React/Angular jobs every 18 months for more pay is normal and risk-free, since the job market has never not been hot.

I've been them, in prior cycles. They know everything, and won't listen to anything but actual hard experience. An education is coming, but not from our comments.

I do expect the travel industry to be in shambles for at least a year if not several, which will effectively slow down every national economy and the global economy as well, thus practically guaranteeing a major multi-year recession on that basis alone.

18 months for a vaccine, and then another year to actually distribute it to everyone

Not true. Once the R is reduced below 1 (even to 0.99) the pandemic will disappear in weeks (an exponential reduction).

Why would it just disappear? There are reports of secondary waves of infection and long-term health impacts for those who managed to recover.

Also public health is separate from the economy which is on the edge of another great depression with 10M unemployment claims in the US alone.

Exponential decay is exponential growth in reverse, so for example, if the R were 2 during the growth phase, and the R is now 0.5, you would expect it to take the same amount of time to decrease as it did to build up.

If the R were reduced to 0.99 it would take years to go away. To give you an idea, after 10 rounds of people getting infected, spreading it onward, and recovering, the number of cases would only have decayed to around 90% of its peak value (0.99 ^ 10 = 0.904)

yup- just like Trump predicted- a Miracle!

Only a Miracle can save him!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FXH69LabyPw

The pandemic might disappear in a few weeks. It will take far longer to fix the economic debacle.

The correct model is that of bacteria in a petri dish. As long as you have a few bacterium left, they can regrow. And as long as we're getting reports of a few cases in major cities or countries, those cities or countries will lock down. So it doesn't matter how many bacteria are left as much as how long it takes to get the last remainder eliminated.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com