To Swedes, it's the rest of the world engaging in a reckless experiment
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Note that I haven't seen any claim from the UK government that the existing rules aren't sufficient as long as they're being followed - a claim which I might find hard to believe but at least would be consistent with threatening a broader ban on outdoor activity. The quote from Matt Hancock is: "If you don't want us to have to take the step to ban exercise of all forms outside of your own home, then you've got to follow the rules." As though we're all school children being told that we'll all get detention if the trouble makers in the class keep acting up.
It feels like the purpose of the lockdown - to reduce transmission rate of the virus - is being forgotten and there is increasing focus on having a list of Allowed Activities and Forbidden Activities, rather than trying to make a consistent trade-off between cost (risk of transmission) vs benefit (health - including, very importantly, mental health effects of retaining or losing freedom, not to mention the more ideological desire to keep some semblance of civil liberties).
I don't think that works. It only takes 10% of defectors to create a similar catastrophic result as with 50% defectors.
Human society has enacted laws for about four millenia and enforces them with threats and violence. That works to keep those who would otherwise only act in their own interests in check. There was no group of humans at the size of Sweden's population in existence where toothless rules like "be excellent to each other" and "use your best personal judgement" were enough to be workable.
Do you have math to back that up? Clearly R_0 would be lower in the first case than in the second. I think significantly lower due to both less infectors and less opportunities to infect.
...and I'm not being sarcastic when I say that.
Will NY and CA be left on their own? That is an interesting possibility to explore.
Jared Kushner: "The notion of the federal stockpile was it's supposed to be our stockpile," he said. "It's not supposed to be states' stockpiles that they then use."
Is that a signal for NY and their request for ventilators? How will recovery political aid look like from the same administration? Affectionate?
The only normal country, entire planet is experiment.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/05/sweden-prepare...
1. Gather application from low-risk people to be voluntarily infected. Needs to be a significant proportion of population.
2. Schedule them to be infected and isolate until they are virus-free and immune.
3. Immune people are released with no restrictions.
4. Eventually herd immunity is achieved.
It seems to me to be the obviously correct thing to do (at least insofar as having immediate testing of the hypothesis at large scale with volunteers) but it treads on multiple cultural taboos and will therefore never be part of the gated institutional narrative.
Honestly asking, are Chicken Pox parties also considered taboo? I don't have kids, but it sounds sensible to me, and I've heard people talk about it like it's normal.
But if that's ok, I don't see where the difference would be to doing the same with the Coronavirus? It's just young adults instead of kids. Is that the crucial difference? Or is it because the lethality is considered higher? If yes, where does one draw the line then?
I'd consider myself a Utilitarian, so... everything is just a calculation of good and bad. Or, to reference pop culture, you could approach me with the same level of disgust as Androids are generally approached in Alien IV. But I truly have difficulty understanding how most people appear to tick, so pardon me, if I look at the numbers of the Coronavirus and just am generally confused as to why it's such a big fuss.
To me, this sounds like a great idea. Battling it with immunity and also paying the price of taking a few more additional losses outweigh grinding the world to a halt and attempting to contain it, at least, if you ask me. And since a vaccine will take too long (no one appears to deny that), there's no way around trying to get immunity, and once you've "accepted" that, the earlier we start, the better. In fact, the later we start, the more lives are at stake and the more economic damage we'll sustain.
In light of that... such a Chicken Pox party is a legitimate method as part of the immunity-strategy.
Insofar as anyone of authority says anything positive about them, it is only because pox parties are still a relatively obscure phenomenon and therefore mainstream institutions haven't put in the effort yet to fully tamp down on dissenting opinions.
I can remember having caught it as a kid, but if I didn't... I'd believe, I'd rather be thankful than scornful towards my parents if they had made sure I had caught it, instead of just letting things take their fateful course...
EDIT: I mean, I am glad I had it as a kid. That means I don't need to worry about it now, right? Or is that a very naive way of thinking?
I never had chicken pox as a child and got the vaccine as an adult due to a colleagues child being exposed to the pox and knowing that it could affect me and my colleague quite badly.
If we had wide-spread testing, we might be able to let some people know that they have recovered from exposure and are likely safe to return to a more normal life.
Most of us skepticals aren't arguing that we shouldn't do anything, but that we should gracefully allow citizens to adapt, and if necessary, then allow the government to adjust. This is what Sweden is doing, whereas most of the other countries were so convinced that what they were doing was right, they just outright declared it the law, not giving their citizens any chance to handle it by themselves.
And I believe this "nannying" is something that a whole fucking bunch of us, especially in the Western hemisphere, are pissed about, and we're looking and hoping for Sweden to get through this just how we believe would be correct course of action.
[1] https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/smittskydd-beredskap/utb...
Current deaths per 1 million in covid-19
Sweden: 37
Denmark: 28
Norway: 11
All countries have a similar 'start' date with the Denmark lagging a few days. None of the countries are recommending homemade masks, which is disturbing.[0] https://mackuba.eu/corona/#compare_countries (deaths per 1 mln checked)
According to the article, ICU capacity is currently at a quarter. They could probably "afford" a higher rate, and be done with it faster.
Insisting on minimizing that number at all costs is insane. First, only if you could contain it or a vaccine becomes available, would you be actually mitigating it, else you're just shifting around a set amount of deaths over a larger timespan. Second, if you apply that logic consistently across every aspect of life, you'd have to ban cars too, they're far too dangerous and deadly. And smoking. And drinking. And the list just goes on. There are some who'd say yes to all three, but... oh boy, you must be fun at parties.
Look at the numbers in the US. No matter how it develops or has developed (we don't know the true infection ratio of the population, which is undoubtedly higher), there's no more containing it on a global scale. Our globalized and, at least for the privileged, largely open world with open borders would cease to exist, for there would be countries that insist on containing it, thus quarantining anyone entering, and therefore killing off all non-essential travel, like e.g. tourism. So, to keep that, you need to be immune... or a vaccine has to exist. But, it's also a gamble to be counting on a vaccine.
This is incorrect. You're reducing the number of deaths. Think of it like this: imagine 2% of people need ICU care. 100% of those that don't get ICU care die. 100% of those that do get ICU care live. ICU care takes a week. You can have everyone need ICU care all at once: everyone beyond the number of ICU beds will die, so 2% of the population dies. Or you can spread it out so that the number of people needing care at once is below the number of ICU beds, and no one dies.
And since your second point depends on your (flawed) first, it's invalid too.
Quoting my earlier reply: "According to the article, ICU capacity is currently at a quarter. They could probably "afford" a higher rate, and be done with it faster."
I'm obviously aware of that. Now we're just arguing how high the numbers are, but we agree that they exist. You're arguing Sweden will have numbers so high, they will be overwhelmed. I believe the infected number is significantly higher than measured, and we're about 1/3rds of peak, so Sweden, in my opinion, will peak at about 75% ICU capacity.
My second point still stands.
EDIT: Or, to apply reductio ad absurdum to your argument, if we go all the way and attempt to minimize that number to the extreme, we could be facing a lockdown lasting years and have ICU capacity barely scratch 1% above nominal (on the contrary - it would decrease, as reduced societal activity initially incurs less deaths/ICU cases from e.g. accidents).
The numbers shown represent those admitted in ICU.