Unemployment Rate in U.S. stands to hit 32% says Federal Reserve

vox.com

12 points·mmhsieh··8 comments

The Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that unemployment rose to 4.4% in March [1]. The article mentions that this was a back of the envelope calculation so I'm not going to panic just yet.

[1] https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/business/20...

Note that the reference week in this month’s job report only went through March 12th. That was before the back to back record weeks of first time unemployment claims of 3mm and 6mm. Despite all that, the job report was still significantly worse than predicted (701k losses vs consensus of 100k losses).

Yes, this back of the envelope calculation may be a worst case, but the situation is far worse than a 4.4% unemployment rate. Look for revisions to make this even worse.

Stagflation ahead.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/19/what-comes-after-coronavirus...

Get ready for 'stagflation'

https://youtu.be/6psKnT5a4Gg

Also, the US unemployment numbers are highly-politicized and manipulated. For one, they fail to account for the labor force participation rate, livable wages, employment hours desired vs. actual, having to work multiple jobs while being unable to save, or not/having healthcare.

I hope not. I remember stagflation from the Carter-era, it was a pretty dismal time.

[Dupe]

"Job losses could total 47M, unemployment 32%, St. Louis Fed president says"

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22730170

Back-of-the-envelope estimates of next quarter’s unemployment rate

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22732953

CBO estimate was 10% that’s probably conservatively low but still not in the range of 32.

https://www.cbo.gov/publication/56314

why a state fed is making those predictions?

Lock-down or not, people are not going to be spending any money as long as there is a worldwide health crisis.

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