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Comment by lisper | Hacker News Reader

There might not be food shortages, but something hinky is definitely going on with the paper product supply chain. I have not seen a single roll of TP or paper towels on a shelf anywhere in my area (San Francisco Peninsula) since we went on lockdown on March 16.

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Hoarding is an interesting phenomena... you start with some people panic buying supplies unreasonably. That runs supplies low... now, a person that otherwise might not hoard at the first sign of crisis rationally must do at least a little so since they may not be able to get their supplies as usual... which in turns amplifies it all. If you went to the store and they happened to have TP would you take the opportunity to buy it, need now or not? I probably would unless I already had few weeks on hand.

I live in the bay area, too... and I have a Target who's front door is about 200' from my front door. I have seen TP and paper towels... but it goes very fast when it's there. Of course, I called our close by friends as soon as I saw the stock and I'm sure others did as well. It was gone very quickly. If that's happening everywhere. Reductions in logistics capacity will also contribute to the slowness of getting some of this stuff to store shelves regardless of production capacity.

Until you start seeing "shelter in place" orders lifting, I think this is only the start of the consumable goods problem.

I did something similar with flour yesterday. I was in a grocery store getting mostly dairy and some other perishables I was starting to run a bit low on. But I saw a solitary 5# bag of King Arthur flour and grabbed it. I wasn't out at home but I was down to a few pounds of all-purpose flour so it seemed sensible to grab some more while I had the opportunity. I'm sure a lot of people are acting that way.

This is exactly how people act during normal times, isn't it? Or are people really running on such thin margins that they have to shop every few days?

I think most people normally run on thinner margins. Personally, I probably end up with more food etc. in the house than I need during normal times. Even so, I've definitely picked up some things that happened to be available which weren't really at my usual informal restock level yet. I'm talking about things that I probably have a good 2-3 week supply of and getting some more anyway.

ADDED: Part of it is that a lot of people in cities don't have a lot of storage space. Furthermore, a lot of people also can't really afford to lay in large quantities of products rather than picking up enough to last a week or so when they run out.

I was going to edit but I think a new comment here is more fair:

The other comments about commercial vs. residential TP are good, too. Turns out our economy is complex. Think of how even this discussion about TP reveals a large scale bifurcation of how a singular, simple product is produced and supplied. Once you bring in the rest of the upstream and downstream supply chains... it's incomprehensibly complex.

This gets to something I'm concerned about which is the readiness of policymakers to designate this business "non-essential" and so should shut down, and that business "essential" and should remain in operation. How much does the essential economy depend on the non-essential economy? I mentioned logistics, I bet trucks carrying TP (of either class) also depend on other, less essential products... how many of these trucks were marginal in the good times and will end up closing up shop reducing overall readily available container space? Some of my clients are companies that make use of industrial CNC machines; and I've seen some of the same machines in use in very different businesses. For example, one client made higher end bicycle parts and the other made lab equipment for bio-tech applications. One is likely considered essential, the other not: the company that makes the CNC machines will still get business from the "essential" business while they won't from the non-essential business. How will that CNC machine company deal with the reduced economies of scale or their own suppliers that are perhaps less clearly essential failing to supply them? How will that impact the bio-tech lab equipment company?

I've also posted this before... but it's applicable here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XetplHcM7aQ

Everyone is using more household TP (40% more IIRC), and much less commercial TP. And it isn't actually the same factories producing both, nor the same distribution network. TP for commercial businesses is different paper, packaged in different sized rolls. So shortages of household TP make sense. Some people might be hoarding, but even without that there is going to be an ongoing supply issue until the supply chain rebalances.

How hard can it be for Costco and Sams to just start stocking big packages of commercial TP? It might not be as soft, but it works fine.

I actually bought some commercial paper from a local hardware store. It's fine, but hard to use as there is no hole in the center of the roll.

Some commercial TP is on rolls suitable for homes. And some is on ultra mega rolls that are LP sized. That's not going to work without a mega dispenser.

If the alternative is no TP, the problem of it not fitting on the roll seems minor. Just put the roll on a counter.

When I was in college, the dorms switched from having dual-roll dispensers of regular TP to having a single roll that was some 18" in diameter. That's not really viable for just putting on the counter.

Well we are certainly screwed as a country if we can't manage to wipe our asses with a too-large roll of toilet paper.

The corollary to this: if you need TP, paper towels, etc. and you need them now, check your local restaurant supply store or industrial supplier.

I haven’t seen those things at groceries or warehouse stores for a while, but GFS had an entire aisle full of paper products and Grainger was well stocked the last time I looked.

It's a good tip, but even they seem to be selling out now. Grainger is showing no in-store availability at any of the stores within 100 miles of me, and most toilet paper is backordered for online ordering too. A few do seem available to order for store pickup within a few days, though. The coreless TP in particular seems to still be in stock, perhaps because it's a bit awkward for home use. Here's an in-stock 36-pack of coreless TP for $88, for example: https://www.grainger.com/product/GEORGIA-PACIFIC-Compact-2-P...

This is the story my two sibling commenters are talking about:

https://marker.medium.com/what-everyones-getting-wrong-about...

There's higher demand for consumer-grade TP because of a couple of reasons:

1. First-order hoarders, who hoarded when the panic started. I saw this when I went to my Costco on Feb 28th, which is when 99% of the country, and 95% of Washington State thought that this COVID thing is going to be no big deal. Any toilet paper brought out from the backrooms into the store would get snatched up in <10 minutes by shoppers. The Safeways, the QFCs, the corner stores, the gas stations around town, of course, had no toilet paper shortages at the time.

2. Second-order hoarders, who started hoarding when they heard that the first-order hoarders are doing it, and that Costco was out, so that they personally don't run low.

3. Weeks later, when the shutdown orders came in, people no longer go to work, so they don't poop on company time. The thing is, the toilet paper you use at work comes in giant rolls of half-ply, that are sold by the pallet. Demand for them has plummeted, while demand for 12-packs of double-ply has soared - and it takes some time for the toilet paper factories + logistic chains to retool.

Another article I read said that something similar was going on with TP. Lots of businesses and schools shut down. People at home are using more TP.

I also suspect that, to an even greater degree than with food, people are doubtless--if not exactly hoarding--at least stocking up with a bit extra. Which, multiplied by millions of people, is a lot.

My case is probably pretty typical. Before things got really crazy, I checked around my house for levels of various things and picked up some more of anything I could even vaguely use some more of if shopping became more difficult for the next month or two. Which included getting a big package of TP which I wouldn't have bothered about for another month or so normally.

With shelter in place orders suddenly doubled the need for TP for homes. Paper mills that target big buyers (who buy by the pallet) use different paper, packaging, and contracts than paper mills that target grocery stores.

Sure there's panic buying on top of this, but that hides the fact that there is an actual shortage.

Paper mills run on low margins and already (typically) run the mill 24/7 so there's not much more excess capacity.

Agreed. Not sure where people are buying these and masks in the major cities. Are they just buying it off of eBay for a premium?

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