Sweden is the country to watch as they are the policy outlier.

It appears that their infection, hospitalization, and death rates are not higher than other countries which implemented lockdowns.

It also appears that their economic activity has declined by a similar amount as did that of countries which implemented lockdowns.

So if staying at home is made voluntary, the economy won't reflate all of a sudden, and illness and mortality probably won't increase. Because even if staying at home is voluntary, many people will still stay at home, including potential patrons of reopened businesses.

We'll see how things progress in the months ahead, but our course seems set regardless of policy.