Tracking Coronavirus by Smell Test

Of course, that's Germany, not London or the US, but at least there, the evidence currently points to a bad flu or something else for all these people from November to February.

An acquaintance of mine was actually sick in November with COVID-like symptoms. They had a dry cough that was so nasty, doctors tested them for whooping cough (pertussis) and it was negative. And, it actually was not too long after their office got a visit from some overseas partners from China. IIRC, they even said one of the Chinese visitors had a bit of a cough at the time. I think this is pretty strong circumstantial evidence that they may have had the virus. At the very least, it's enough evidence that this person should definitely get an antibody test as soon as practical.

Edit: I initially forgot to include that the pertussis test was negative, although that was certainly implied.

Usually in office style flus only a subset of people get it.

I also have noticed my sense of smell come and go with lots of infections.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seattle_windshield_pitting_epi...

The point is, often things that are quite common but otherwise unnoticed all of a sudden appear to be an outbreak due to some sort of new found public consciousness. Everybody is analyzing their latest cough and fever so you are going to get a lot more stories of people with coronavirus symptoms even if people getting those sorts of symptoms is quite common (relatively speaking). It's just reporting of those symptoms has increased.

With respect to COVID-19, the real sign of its unusualness is the increase in hospital admissions for respiratory issues.

Youngest child went almost with no symptoms. The one with strongest immune system suffered a lot.

This was 3 weeks before first confirmed cases.

It's not a safe bet for anyone to assume on that basis that they've already had the coronavirus and are now immune. Those bad flu-like symptoms were flu symptoms, and confer no immunity against SARS-CoV-2.

... and still. I think it's a social psychology phenomenon. If I talk to our baker, her family has the same story. Friends as well. We all might like to believe we've had it and so we lightly skew the facts to fit our perception and hope. What I know as a fact (data released today) is that mortality was not rising in my region until two weeks after 'patient zero'. In our case three weeks after the first ill kid.

Occam's razor: It would be very hard to imagine wide-spread asymptomatic cases without symptomatic cases and deaths. No deaths means no spread. So we had something else.

It really doesn't fit the timeline since it didn't officially hit the US until a month and a half later, so I don't think this is what I had then, but still, there are reports that this was active in China in November, so sometimes it really makes me wonder.

I worry about people catching Covid and another flu simultaneously

There's no evidence that it was Covid-19. But she is a nanny for a family of doctors in Boston so it's not impossible that it's it.

Reminds me of stuff like "there are no gay people in $COUNTRY." [0]

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[0]: https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/07/asia/malaysia-tourism-ministe...

1. the number of people dying from respiratory problems would have spiked up specially among the older population

2. The number of people each infected person infects that he knows points to the virus not having passed through the population before

covid19? --> ~30-60% chance of loss of smell

loss of smell? --> ~80% chance of covid19 [in the data they collected]

https://labblog.uofmhealth.org/lab-report/are-digestive-issu...

Allaying Fears and Fallacies about Lactose Intolerance

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S00028...

Abstract

Public awareness and misunderstandings of lactose intolerance are at an all-time high. Many people erroneously believe they are lactose intolerant or develop gastrointestinal symptoms after intake of lactose. Consequently, lactose-containing foods such as milk and other dairy foods may be eliminated unnecessarily from the diet. Because these foods are a major source of calcium, low intake of them can compromise calcium nutriture. This, in turn, can increase the risk of major chronic diseases such as osteoporosis (porous bones) and hypertension. This review is intended to help dietetics professionals alleviate clients' fears about lactose intolerance and recommend dietary strategies to improve tolerance to lactose. Scientific findings indicate that the prevalence of lactose intolerance is grossly overestimated. Other physiologic and psychologic factors can contribute to gastrointestinal symptoms that mimic lactose intolerance. Scientific findings also indicate that people with laboratory-confirmed low levels of the enzyme lactase can consume 1 serving of milk with a meal or 2 servings of milk per day in divided doses at breakfast and dinner without experiencing symptoms. Several dietary strategies are available to help lactose maldigesters include milk and other dairy foods in their diet without experiencing symptoms.

The full study cites results from breath hydrogen tests to support its claim that "the prevalence of lactose intolerance is grossly overestimated" (as stated in the abstract, above). In particular:

A diagnose of lactose maldigestion [by an increase in breath hydrogen concentration of 20 ppm or more above the baseline value measured by a breath hydrogen test] does not predict the occurrence of symptoms of intolerance (12, 13, 15, 22, 28, 30). Nor can symptoms that follow lactose or milk intake be used to diagnose low lactase levels or lactose maldigestion (28). Intolerance symptoms after a lactose load have been demonstrated to occur in lactose maldigesters and lactose digesters (28).

Or, in other words (citing from the paper):

There is no clear correlation between lactose maldigestion, lactose intolerance, and milk intolerance. This may be explained by the subjectiveness of symptoms and the quantity of lactose or milk required to demonstrate symptoms. Strong beliefs may contribute to lactose intolerance; that is, persons who believe they are lactose intolerant may experience symptoms (12,30). Johnson et al (12) reported that when 45 lactase-deficient African-Americans were fed either a lactose-containing milk or lactose-hydrolyzed milk under boudle-blind conditions, on third of the subjects experienced some minor intolerance to both types of milk. The subjects' symptoms were not due to the lactose content of milk, but perhaps to social and cultural attitudes that influenced their ability to tolerate milk (12). In a more recent double-blind investigation, Vesa et al (3) found that one half of lactose maldigesters reported symptoms after consuming a lactose-free milk or a greater level of symptoms after intake of smaller rather than larger intakes of lactose. The symptomes were due, therefore, to factors other than lactose intake.

I note that this is one study and rather dated, but I just happened to stumble upon it while looking for something else. There may be newer studies in the literature that contradict this one's findings.

Edit: also, I used the term "gluten intolerance", not "coeliac disease". Please don't accuse me of being flippant about coeliac disease when I did no such thing.