In other places with higher testing, such as Australia, the CFR is 0.6% or less. This implies that the true number of cases is 4-5 times higher... probably a lot more.
In other places with higher testing, such as Australia, the CFR is 0.6% or less. This implies that the true number of cases is 4-5 times higher... probably a lot more.
That's what a pandemic needs. If it is very deadly very quickly it kills its transmission vectors before they can transmit. If it is entirely symptom free, it is very evolutionarily successful, but no one cares because there aren't any negative effects.
There is an "optimum" of disease characteristics for maximum damage and we seem to be experiencing one.
The bottom line is that it seems to be very difficult to prevent a majority of the world population from getting this disease and the result is going to be a global fatality rate of somewhere in the neighborhood of 1%.
It will be hard to trace and isolate if this is the case.
[1] https://sfist.com/2020/04/01/cdc-director-coronavirus-25-per... [2] https://nationalpost.com/news/world/in-iceland-free-coronavi...
The CFR should end up being about 1.5% (or possibly somewhat higher).
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2...
Doesn't account for lack of testing, of course.
Deaths / (Deaths + Recoveries) would be more like it, and that's a scary number.