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The forecasted unemployment rate is weird: economists are not forecasting a major increase for April 03s release. Do you happen to know why?

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate

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April unemployment is probably only measured mid-March, so it predates all these claims.

They do the monthly survey in the middle of the month. Most of the state shutdowns happened after the surveys were completed.

Don’t ask me why they don’t just use the weekly numbers.

The weekly numbers are unemployment benefit claims, whereas I think the monthly employment statistics are based on surveying the population and counting the actual number of people who are employed, seeking work, etc.

Yeah I understand the distinction but the weekly numbers capture much of the same information and are more accurate. The monthly survey is just something we do because we’ve done it for a long time.

The weekly numbers are number of newly unemployed.

The unemployment survey is measuring how many people are currently unemployed.

The former is correlated with the rate of change in the latter, but is not the same thing.

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