Comment by aresant | Hacker News Reader

Comment by aresant | Hacker News Reader

There is not a shortage issue, there is a logistics issue.

The logistics issue is that we have commercial and retail supply chains that are Apples & Oranges level different in terms of getting end consumers what they need.

For instance:

1) Commercial Offices - why is toilet paper disappearing especially in big cities? It's not the production side that's failing. It's that a huge amount of toilet paper is bought and distributed by commercial contract stockers. The supply chain has NOT adjusted to get commercially stocked toilet paper to retail centers. And making it worse commercial distributors are FORBIDDEN to sell to retail in many cases! So now you're dealing with a supply chain + beurocratic issue. There are Mt. Everest sized stocks of commercial TP sitting in warehouses all over America.

2) Commercial Restaurants - These establishments fed the MAJORITY of office workers in major cities up until 3 weeks ago. Commercial restaurant supply chains are reeling - they have stock sitting on shelves and are trying to figure out how to get it into the retail supply chain with similar beurocratic and logistics issues.

There is not a food / grocery shortage and there is unlikely to be a food / grocery shortage in the USA.

But it is going to take some time to sort out how to adjust to this new normal.

And inevitably as soon as we figure it out the pendulum will swing the other way :)

In the Netherlands, soon after the first measures were put in place, they decided to open up the wholesale stores to private persons (normally, by law, only businesses are allowed to use these). I have no idea how many people actually go there, but in the light of this situation it may well have been a smart move.

You make a good point about the supply chains.

There is not a food shortage yet. However, I would not be surprised if there is a shortage of labor intensive food products in a month or so, depending on storage limits. I would not expect shortages of less labor intensive staples like cereal crops and maybe milk. It seems to me that meat packing is fairly labor intensive, so I would not be surprised if meat becomes more scarce at some point.

Fresh vegetables seem fairly labor intensive. Fruits can be warehoused for a year or so(AFAIK, at least in the case of apples). Some vegetables are probably more automated(potatoes, corn). I wonder about salad greens though.

FWIW, if you're just now considering getting a chest freezer to stockpile frozen goods, good luck. Everyone is sold out.

It's important to remember that many of these labor-intensive crops are harvested by migrant workers who are facing much harsher treatment by our Federal Government than in previous years. This, plus the trade war with China have significantly reduced the output of the USA's agricultural sector.

I suspect we will see shortages of lots of key foodstuffs in the coming months, or higher prices as these goods are imported.

With 30% of the US economy out of work and the gov't prioritizing business vs. consumer handouts I would argue the inverse.

80% of people that get COVID have a mild case.(1)

Mild / average cases of COVID run ~2 weeks beginning to end.

Farming, food production, and grocery is NOT going to close down.

The available labor pool has massively expanded and without paycheck or stimulus coming lots of Americans playing 1-rung above farm labor are going to fill any void in the migrant labor pool.

(1) https://www.webmd.com/lung/covid-recovery-overview#1

That doesn't take into account fear and the need to care for family. If, for instance, Mexico gets hit hard by COVID, you might see an effect on US agricultural labor supply as people return home to care for family or attend funerals. There is a fear factor as well. In China, I remember reading people were simply refusing to show up for work.

> Americans playing 1-rung above farm labor are going to fill any void in the migrant labor pool.

Has this ever happened in modern times? I can see Americans filling voids in the construction and service industries, but farm labor is pretty hard work and doesn't pay well. Will Americans take a farm job when they can sit idle and collect enhanced unemployment benefits?

Keep in mind that farm workers generally don't have quality health care, and will likely fare worse as a population than an averaged sample of cases.

"In China, I remember reading people were simply refusing to show up for work."

This might be what happens with people who can afford to live off their savings or state support while out of work, but many won't be so fortunate.

Here's a more likely scenario for many of the seasonal workers who supply our food:

I soon spotted a group of men huddled in a corner...

I stopped and asked them, from a safe distance, if they were following the lockdown.

Ramesh Kumar, who comes from Banda district in Uttar Pradesh state, said that he knew "there won't be anybody to hire us, but we still took our chances".

"I earn 600 rupees ($8; £6.50) every day and I have five people to feed. We will run out of food in a few days. I know the risk of coronavirus, but I can't see my children hungry," he said.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-52002734

Agreed 100%. But while you can repackage toilet paper, it’s harder for most people to deal with 10# cans of beans when they would otherwise buy and use 1#.

But I guess that bucket of pickles can be rejarred, if they’re available.

The short term outlook for produce is fine. However, the medium term outlook doesn't look good. It is unclear where the supply for farm labor will come from for the rest of the year. The border with Mexico is locked down.

Given that because of quarantine measures a lot of people have little or no work to do at the moment, that might be a potential source of farm labor (which is mostly unskilled labor anyways)?

Canada is not enforcing border closures against temporary foreign farm workers.

The US may be about to discover what a combination of its immigration enforcement policies, combined with its unwillingness to pay farmhands wages that Americans can live on, will result in.

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