Sorry, but look at how China, South Korea, Taiwan etc. are doing right now - this doesn't jive at all with "social distancing is a drop in the bucket". Even Western countries/places which started social distancing early in their local outbreaks look like they'll be a lot better off than places which didn't.
> The vast majority of young people will be totally fine
This is also quite wrong, unfortunately. A sizeable minority of young people will need hospital treatment for COVID, and perhaps intensive care. Given overwhelmed healthcare systems, they won't be "totally fine" at all. Of course, older folks are at increased risk.