Further analysis of the impact of distancing upon the COVID-19 pandemic [pdf]

From Kissler et al. (2020): "To implement an effective intermittant social distancing strategy, it will be necessary to carry out widepsread surveillance to monitor the prevalence threshholds that trigger the beginning or end of the distancing have been crossed."

https://dash.harvard.edu/bitstream/handle/1/42638988/Social%...

The file name being a understated and appropriate reference to "Garbage in, garbage out"

If you don't have reliable data any attempt at clever maneuvering is likely to plant your face into the ground.