I currently live in a country with absolutely no infrastructure to handle this. Our first confirmed case was reported almost three weeks ago. Within a week we ran out of testing kits.
Last night I started researching on the topic to see if there is a formula to calculate the current number of infected people in the country. I don't care about accuracy, it just needs to give an approximate.
The current official figure is less than ten and I feel that by having an estimate (from what I've been able to read, time is a bad indicator, it is what it is) it would help change what I believe to be a false sense of security if one is looking at the official figures.
Is there any such formula or should I use the SIR model? (which currently is a bit over my head)