The U.S.'s $13B aircraft carrier has a toilet problem
popularmechanics.com
popularmechanics.com
In you are a developer, think of the number of times you have seen a successful SAP deployment i.e. on time, on budget, meets specs. Then multiply that by about 10k to reach the complexity of an aircraft carrier.
This is, bare minimum, an embarrassing failure of design. No system, especially on a military ship, should have no redundancy. A single point of failure should not bring down every toilet on the ship. It's a damn aircraft carrier- splurge on separate sewage in the aft and fore.
The solution for this nonsense is competition. Real, honest, open, transparent competition. Combined with laws that dictate refusal to pay in excess of the bid, instant scrapping of programs that exceed cost estimates, and a 10-year timeout window between when people in DoD leadership can transition out and get jobs with DoD contractors.
So you're gonna build 75% of an aircraft carrier, and... then what?
What if the Navy builds the ships itself?
As a government contractor, I agree and fully endorse this.
> The solution for this nonsense is competition. Real, honest, open, transparent competition. Combined with laws that dictate refusal to pay in excess of the bid, instant scrapping of programs that exceed cost estimates, and a 10-year timeout window between when people in DoD leadership can transition out and get jobs with DoD contractors.
...And I disagree with this fully. The solution is for the government to return to in-housing, relax the rules they hold themselves to, and aggressively expand their own capabilities. The things the government makes are far and away superior to anything in the private sector. At its best, the government does it better, cheaper, and longer-lasting than anyone else.
Real competition for the things the government needs done is just not possible. Roughly 50% of contracts are based on just flat-out lies, and it's even worse for shitty contracts like SBIRs. I'll tell you, I have seen some real dumb shit. The BUYER needs technical expertise in order to not get ripped off, and if you already have expertise it makes much more sense to go the extra miles and build it yourself.
The market for government contracts would need to be way more lucrative to allow companies to fail honestly, and even then, why would they when lying is more profitable? Plus, this doesn't even cover the worst part of large contracts, which is that they're effectively negotiated by politics, either congress itself or inter-DoD factionalism. That, more than anything else, creates large-scale rot.
After I graduated I thought I wanted to work for NASA. Then I found out most NASA employees spend most of their day not inventing or building things, but managing contractors who did the actual work.
I guess I'm saying I like your suggestion better than mine.
Can you cite examples and explain factors that you think lead to the government working at its best?
As much as I like free market competition, I think you’re probably right, at least when it comes to projects/pieces of projects where the only customer is the government. But when there’s a problem not well suited for competition to solve efficiently, that doesn’t guarantee a good government result: there’s a ton of variability in the quality of government responses.
My basic theory is this: the success of large government engineering projects depends primarily on whether or not everyone involved in the project believe it to be of existential importance (military projects during the cold war), whether its something that they will personally use and want to feel pride in (golden gate bridge), or whether or not the problem has some novel/interesting element that attracts the best and brightest.
> But when there’s a problem not well suited for competition to solve efficiently, that doesn’t guarantee a good government result: there’s a ton of variability in the quality of government responses.
Can you find me an example? By and large, the idea that the government is inefficient is a myth. There are boondoggles like Star Wars, but those are failures independent of government implementation. There are "failures" like Amtrak that are unprofitable, but they are kept running to offer services at a given price point because we want that regardless of what the market says.
Government projects are generally subject to the exact same motivations as private projects. They make profits. Employees can be fired and promoted. Innovation is rewarded, at the individual level. Underperforming projects are cut, often much more aggressively than in the free market.
Much more important than a sense of patriotism is the fact that governments are subject to intense internal and external scrutiny. Literally the most powerful people in the country are constantly looking, specifically to cut individual programs. There is no safe position in the government and institutional rot is constantly being gutted even when it's unwise, eg CDC, EPA, IRS lately. You will not find that pressure at IBM.
USPS is fast because its mail is hauled by Fedex. Fedex is also significantly cheaper than USPS at delivering packages if you have a large contract with them. USPS is sometimes cheaper for retail customers, though, and it's also cheaper for standard mail.
a) Processes can be a matter of law, requiring an extraordinarily heavy bureaucratic lift to adapt to new information or fix bugs.
b) Processes are calibrated to minimize trust. Contracting must be as obtuse as it is, because the alternative is to let civil servants make judgement calls, which the public cannot abide. This probably mitigates some serious downside risk, but it also precludes a lot of potential upside. Other institutions succeed when competent and trustworthy people just do what they think is right. (I daresay this is the only way an organization ever accomplishes anything difficult). Government agencies are only allowed to do that in emergencies, or in tiny edge cases like special forces.
c) Where leaders do have latitude, the fear of embarrassment weighs unusually heavy on their decision-making. It's harder to take good risks. I'm sure there was waste at IBM that would not survive in government. I'm equally sure there was innovation at IBM that could not have happened in government.
In some ways "government can't do anything right" is a self-fulling prophecy. The controls we implement in response to that perception make it come true. More fundamentally, I think any engineer can identify with how having to balance so many stakeholders could be incompatible with doing their best work. Making government less accountable probably isn't the answer either.
I think the problems with government controlled projects are better generalized as problems with incentives and accountability in large organizations. It’s possible to get it right, but the bigger an organization gets, and the less existential pressure it feels/the more it can let problems fester without consequence, the more problems will occur.
The most stereotypical example is the soviet union. There was no accountability, and production and quality problems were endemic to pretty much every sector under government control. Cars, food, housing, clothing, energy, etc, were all behind the west, and became increasingly behind the longer things went on.
The soviet union was a particularly horrible government, but the US government also has plenty of inefficiencies. The SLS project has been dragging for eons, while SpaceX has been accelerating rapidly. Virtually no one pays taxes directly through government interfaces; they all use private services like TurboTax because they’re much simpler to use and more user friendly that what the government provides. Publicly funded job training programs have abysmal success rates, whereas private apprenticeships a schools that earn by pairing well trained students with their first job do much better.
Once you become a mega corporation, I think accountability and incentive problems start to kick in, just like in many governments. If they also lack the internal scrutiny that you describe within the US government, they will do worse (assuming they don’t have as many differing political objectives as a government).
Because there are also examples of huge government funded successes, like the Apollo program, the Golden Gate Bridge, the internet, etc, there is some sort of difference between the government projects that work and the government projects that don’t. I think its important to explicitly determine what that difference is, rather than reduce it to a binary opinion on government projects.
It's easy to imagine that the toilet failures here under discussion represent an isolated concern and a teething problem for the kind of new, nonessential system that you expect to see in a new class of capital warship which, after all, still gets the fundamentals right. The trouble is that, once you start really looking, that's just not borne out by the evidence.
A lot of the ideas in play with these ships, as with the LCS or the F-35, are fundamentally good. But the US military procurement process has become so deeply corrupt that we as a country are no longer capable of implementing these good ideas well. The multiple-decade, trillion-dollar boondoggle has become table stakes, and that doesn't deserve to be excused by anyone.
(Also, a Ford-class carrier has a crew of something like four thousand. They're gonna need a lot of buckets...)
(1) https://breakingdefense.com/2018/06/navys-troubled-ford-carr...
Note that this system is a privately-contracted one and was supposed to work as delivered.
I realise the government/military procurement process can result in higher costs than the private sector would pay, but that is beyond ridiculous.
Also, it surely cannot be a good idea to keep massive amounts of acid around for non essential purposes.
Even though you're just flying a few guys (say a few acid guys, maybe an engineer who knows the toilets, just in case) out for a day or two, that's stupidly expensive. Not even just the cost of putting them on a plane or helicopter- even though you may only be paying for a few hundred man hours, you need to pay a lot to pull those guys out of whatever they were doing.
4,700 people shitting in buckets is kind of an emergency in the middle of the ocean, unfortunately. The navy is notorious for its sleep deprivation and tight schedules. Seemingly small disruptions and timewasters can lead to major problems and mistakes.
It's the same with things like outages, an outage lasting a day may "cost" $1 million, but what's actually meant is that you missed $1 million in profits for the day, not that you had to pay $1 million. If operating a carrier costs $400k/day then you could say then fixing something for a day "costs" $400k, but that's kind of a simplistic way of putting it.
My guess is that the liquid is toxic and also might have to be processed after.
These high costs occur when contractors have the government by the balls, because... that's what markets are for. The gov will pay $10,000 to replace a bulkhead (toilet cover), because well, toilets need to be covered on an airplane. $10,000 is just what it costs for someone to pick up the phone.
EDIT: See https://www.navy.mil/submit/display.asp?story_id=103122 for a 2017 press release describing how the Reactor Department produces fresh water aboard the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln (a Nimitz-class carrier, i.e., an old design). TL;DR: It's done with giant evaporators, that is, distilling units.
Fun fact: At sea, one of the big uses of fresh water aboard a carrier is the repeated washing down of the aircraft to reduce corrosion from the salt air.
The process plants run better on fresh water but fresh water is expensive and heavy on a ship so a vacuum system allows for less water per flush and really works pretty well if people don't flush stupid things.
Stupid things that my co-workers have fished from sewage plant besides the things mentioned in the article: Towels Screwdrivers Glasses Rags baby wipes/ flushable wipes Pens
As long as only body waste and a small amount of toilet paper are used, the systems are actually fairly reliable. Teaching people that that is ALL that can be flushed is an on going problem. The chemicals seem to be another issue, possibly a design issue but there are ways around that too. Urine crystals build up on the walls of the pipes and reduce the diameter for the waste water to flow. The vaccum systems typically have smaller diameter pipes then the old style "gravity" flush systems. There are companies that make continuous dosing systems that go in the end of the branch lines to help keep them clear.
A lot of issues with maintenance can be solved by design of branches in the piping system with isolation valves so the whole system doesn't have to be shut down to fix something. Even replacing a toilet means shutting off the branch or system since it opens a hole in the vacuum system and leads to loss of vacuum.
Some more information: https://www.boatus.org/clean-boating/sewage/msd-types/
Manufacturers: https://jetsgroup.com/jets-group/the-highest-standards/the-h... https://evac.com/
One thing of note: seems the whole system is designed for peace. While I can understand armchair designer (it is likely it will never see something like WWII action) this should be designed as a machine of war in case all hell breaks lose. I guess the backup plan is to have buckets and a bucket brigade...
Having one system for when the ship is out at sea and switching to something else causes even more engineering problems. Even if you're not processing the waste, the vacuum sewage system would still be used to collect the waste to discharge it.
MARPOL Laws: http://www.imo.org/en/about/conventions/listofconventions/pa...
https://www.dco.uscg.mil/Our-Organization/Assistant-Commanda...
Special Sea Areas: http://www.imo.org/en/OurWork/Environment/SpecialAreasUnderM...
For example, suppose that you move part of the "processing" into the mechanism of the toilet itself, i.e. you use some kind of lever-operated press to pass your own output through a sort of a sieve; only soft items will pass, or items you break apart - but then you notice you've broken something apart which demotivates throwing those things in the toilet.
Just a thought.
“[A] McKinsey “business analyst”—someone with an undergraduate degree and no experience—lent to the government priced out at $56,707/week, or $2,948,764/year.”
I picked the wrong job.
Take:
One part slow bureaucracy
One part nepotism
One part jealousy of internal teams
One part good intentions (regulations to prevent said nepotism)
And you get a cluster of inexcusable outcomes.
The company seriously considered hiring a consulting firm whose sole business was helping other businesses land government contracts. The fact that the system is so inefficient that that kind of arbitrage opportunity exists is depressing.
The only companies that can possibly win government contracts here are those that are huge, with tons of staff dedicated to winning government contracts. The end result is they can charge the moon and the sky, not because they do what they do better than anyone else, but because they are just as bloated and inefficient as the government itself and can survive the process of winning the contract in the first place.
The contributions they are making are usually much lower. When you read the numbers it's actually surprising how little money you have to spend to get government money in return. Very good ROI.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VGJLKhsLx18&ab_channel=Steve...
In WW1, the Dreadnoughts were too valuable to be risked. So they were really only used once, in the non-conclusive Battle of Jutland which only lasted a couple of hours.
Millions of Pounds (the equivalent of Billions of Dollars, in today's money) were wasted on ships that were locked safely away because they were too valuable to be actually used in combat. That money could have been far more usefully employed elsewhere.
The same can be said of today's billions of Dollars wasted on useless slow, very expensive targets (= carriers).