No “stimulus” package is going to be effective, because you can’t use spending to stimulate an economy which has been forced to stop producing goods and services. All you will accomplish is inflation as more money chases fewer goods and services.
Like Warren Buffett says, "From a standing start 240 years ago, Americans have combined human ingenuity with a market system to deliver abundance beyond any dreams of our forefathers...". There is nothing to suggest this is suddenly going to stop moving forward, even as we adapt to these new realities.
In short, it seems likely people are going to have more sex when they are stuck at home.
OTOH, I know people with children who are going crazy. I don't they are encouraged to have more children.
I am going crazy, but my kids are also learning an absolute ton from having all this 1:1 attention from someone who is totally invested in them. I've seen big strides from each of them. Their character is really coming out.
I'm one to look for silver linings; this is surprisingly one of them.
"in 9 months there will be a baby boom, entirely consisting of firstborn children"
Intuitively, you'd expect that, but the data from previous epidemics show the opposite effect:
- http://www.populationassociation.org/wp-content/uploads/CAD_...
- https://ifstudies.org/blog/will-the-coronavirus-spike-births
Was this the best possible way to treat an intellectual disagreement? Surely people can disagree with you without being liars or delusionary?
Comments should get more thoughtful and substantive, not less, as a topic gets more divisive. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
At some point, when the stakes are so high, willful ignorance is harmful and should be called out.
But we do know certainly that we will only be hitting the peak of infections sometime in April in states that were much more proactive than the median. It is extremely unlike that things will clear up, say, by Easter. Those who are so optimistic are innumerate and don't understand exponential functions.
Personally, I think that the economy will change significantly, but crash vs recover for markets is different. If suddenly workers got a fair wage and everyone got universal healthcare we could easily see the country doing a lot better while the markets would tank as this would undoubtedly be paid for by loss of corporate profits.
From first principles there is no reason why anyone should think that their won't be 2 billion vaccines tomorrow (perhaps via divine intervention). Heck, from first principles I'm not even sure Australia exists (Maybe Australia is a giant hoax. After all, i have never been there.)
Proving things from first principles is really hard. The fact you weren't able to disprove a statement from first principles is not strong evidence the statement is actually true.
Most atheists believe that there is no reasonable evidence for a deity, thus it makes no sense to believe in one (or some varation of that). In particular they believe this conclusion is rational and can be arrived at through reasoning. Taking "there is no deities" as a first principle, is in essense taking a view about religion on just "faith". My understanding is that to most atheists, this sort of appeal to faith is an anathema.
This test takes some time, so no, not on the next 6 months. One can realistically expect it by 2022, if we are willing to rush and accept some risk.
By the way, 6 months is how long it takes to create a batch of flu vaccines.
Second part, you're dead wrong in two areas. Manufacturing of essential goods continues in haste. And, stimulus is essential for people have lost their jobs and need to buy food. So take your theoretical keyboard economics degree and leave it at the door. Let's take away your source of income, ability to work and see how you feed your family.