Ask HN: How are you managing your money now? | Hacker News Reader

Ask HN: How are you managing your money now?

15 pointstempsy14 comments

Stock market recovered a bit but still down 20% or so and unclear whether we will retest lows in the coming weeks. Unemployment will tick up. Who knows what else.

How are you managing your finances during this time?

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Moved 401k from stocks to bonds about two summers ago after doing some forecasting. Saw a high probability of a crash by this summer into the end of the year. Coronavirus was a catalyst that sped that up significantly.

Not entering the markets again until S&P hits and maintains its closing weekly/monthly values around $1800-$2100. If it breaks below, idk wtf to do.

Aside from that, just spending on essentials, cooking a lot, saving what I can to put into investments once markets calm down, and working on side projects that have the potential to generate side income.

Can you elaborate on any of the signals you used to determine a crash was on the horizon?

Huge survivor bias, nobody would pot here if there wasn't a crash

The virus is pretty much the sole cause of the crash (with some oil price war influence), nobody could have foreseen this to occur this year or even within a few decades.

First of I list what I know:

1) the economy had a very large, in terms of dollars, run up.

2) the fact that it was like 10 years is of little importance to me.

3) the P/E ratios were getting big, not horrible, but bigger than I was comfortable with.

I was having trouble sleeping, because I was worried, and that is a classic sign you are in too deep (for your comfort level). So over the last 3 years I have pulled 90% of my investments into cash.

So what is unknown:

1) when will the virus start leveling off. Although China says theirs is clear, I have a tendency not to trust a country that censors the media?

2) will the virus come back in the fall for a second round?

3) when will the oil war between Saudi Arabia and Russia end?

4) I do not know where the bottom is.

Back to what I know:

4) I know that others, also, do not know the things I say I do not know.

5) I know the market will come back, it might take a few years.

6) The bottom of the market will be clear after it happens.

7) Those who say it is the bottom now, are just talking, they do not know.

8) Until the virus peaks, it will be very hard to guess the impact. Even then there will be a lot unanticipated problems, that are only obvious in hindsight.

Plan going forward:

In the next few weeks, maybe as early as this Monday, start putting a little money back in the market. My goal is to be fully back in within 6 months, ideally having the low point 1/2 through when I am putting money back in.

In the last 3 years you lost all gains that would make you immune to any recession.

Actually I am about 4% ahead, but next week will change that.

It was the lack of sleep that was important. Also I doubt the bottom has been felt yet.

I changed from ynab classic to ledger cli because I’m fed up of the myriad workarounds I end up doing eg for refunds and the bucket system doesn’t really work well for my scenario. It took about half hour to Learn the basic usage and it looks really promising. It is so much more flexible. It’s like going from visual source safe to git. Looking forward to using it every day (I used to dread doing it with ynab4)

Anyhow yes cutting back a lot on expenses.

No change, my living expenses don’t depend on how well or bad the stock market is doing. If anything, I get more stocks for my fixed amount monthly ETF buy.

Pretty much the same as before, just with a bit more regular buys for dollar cost averaging.

In enough time we’ll be at new highs like usual, there’s no need to panic.

I have a custom app/algorithm that manages our bills and bank accounts. I once tried to make it into a SaaS, but it turns out that doing so was illegal in a bunch of states without being a "bank" (which is literally impossible to bootstrap). Oh well.

It was specifically designed for high-cashflow to income accounts (people living paycheck to paycheck).

Since I trade options I follow the wave and it suggests downtrend right now so I am buying $DIS puts and $TSLA calls.

Also being from Canada, I am keeping all $USD right now.

Don't sell low. This too shall pass

Eventually, yes. Meanwhile, FUD will rule, GDP will be depressed, markets will be frothy, and the service economy will be in freeze-frame for as long as social distancing is generally expected. Any person or business with limited cash on hand or in dependable income streams faces a long passage.

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