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> (which is likely [1])

Why do you think it's likely? If you haven't left in 10 days and continue to stay home you're probably safe - safer than if you decided to leave the city now. Is there something preventing you from staying in your room for another couple months? Groceries can be delivered and carefully handled on your end.

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Good points, but a back-of-envelope calculation looks like:

P(failure) = P(infection) * P(critical) * (1-P(icu))

0.1 * 0.8 * 0.9 = 0.072

That infection probability is optimistic, considering what you mention above. That ICU availability probability is the situation we're facing in NYC.

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